Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Monday Night MLB Picks

Mariners Pitching Woes with Gallardo on the Mound

Mark Lathrop

Monday, June 12, 2017 2:43 PM GMT

Monday, Jun. 12, 2017 2:43 PM GMT

This game features two starting pitchers that have struggled this season, and our MLB handicapper doesn't think Vegas can put out a line high enough for him not to take. Read on as he breaks down the starters for this opening game in Minnesota.

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Preview

The Mariners and Twins continue a stretch in which they play each other 7 times in 10 days on Monday night, as the Mariners travel this time to Minnesota for a 4-game series. The Mariners took their home series 2-1, with the middle game of that series being the same pitching matchup that we will see on Monday night for our MLB picks. The Mariners won that game with a walk-off 2-run home run by Mike Zunino, 6-5.

Adalberto Mejia gets the start again for Minnesota and he has the hallmarks of being a AAAA pitcher or someone that just quite hasn’t figured it all out yet. His walk rates have been awesome in AAA over the last two years at 1.03 and 1.31 BB/9, respectively. However, this year with the Twins he is running a 4.72 BB/9 through 32.1 innings pitched. That is just not going to cut it when his 4-seam fastball runs straight with rising action that gets hit in the air. He also has a 2-seam fastball that is simply not missed and has a swinging strike rate under 3%. Mejia has gotten some accolades with his curveball, but he only throws it 0.2% of the time.

This has all led to Mejia carrying a 5.87 FIP through seven starts on the year with a 1.42 WHIP. He’s allowed a reasonable .243 batting average against right-handers, but he has developed a dinger problem with them leading to an 18.2% HR/FB rate and a .515 SLG%. Due to his walk rates, Mejia just can’t be trusted yet. He drew a no-decision against Seattle last week when he gave up three earned runs (on 2 HR’s) over 5 innings pitched, including 3 walks.

Starting for Seattle is Yovani Gallardo, who also has an issue with free passes. On the year, the 2-6 pitcher is carrying a 4.18 BB/9 rate, which is actually an improvement on the 4.65 BB/9 rate he put up with the Orioles in 2016. Other peripheral statistics are just as bad with Gallardo allowing a .285 batting average against, 1.61 WHIP, 5.02 FIP, and 16.7% HR/FB rate. He made it through seven innings against the Twins last week while allowing 5 earned runs, striking out 6, and walking two batters. It was the second start in a row that Gallardo has given up 5 earned runs and he put up a 6.49 ERA in May and a 9.00 ERA so far in June. Not a trustworthy pitcher.

With Mejia and Gallardo on the mound, it is not a surprise that the total for this game has reached 10 at most books. I don’t have an issue laying that number, as each one of these starters can give up 5 runs easily. Look for the bullpens to decide the side outcome here. I’m taking Over 10 runs the odds at Bet 365 as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

2017 MLB Record, 101-89-6, +3.52 Units, 1.58% ROI

Free MLB Picks: OVER 10 Runs Scored (-125)

Best Lines Offered:  Bet 365  

 

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