Scores Flying 'Over' in Baltimore as Blue Jays -1.5 Takes the W

Darin Zank

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 2:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 2:29 PM UTC

Toronto rallied to take Game 1 of a four-game series in Baltimore Monday night, MLB betting odds forsees more of the same for Tuesday's Game 2.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Tuesday Odds
In the early action on this game the best MLB odds we could find on Toronto with Marcus Stroman was the -143 offered at BetOnline, while Baltimore with Miguel Gonzalez was getting +141 at GTBets.


The Situation
Toronto took the opener of this series Monday night 4-3, rallying from a 3-1 deficit, scoring the winning run on a Justin Smoak infield dribbler in the top of the ninth. So the Blue Jays have now won five games in a row, while Baltimore has lost four straight.

With a record of 91-65 Toronto's magic number to win the AL East now sits at two, with six games to play. The Jays also now lead Kansas City by one game in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Meanwhile, at 76-80 Baltimore is, as they say, just playing out the string on this season.

Toronto leads this season series 10 games to six, with the OVERS going 9-6-1.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Gonzalez (9-11, 4.85) is coming off the DL (shoulder) to make his first start in a month. Last time out, back on Aug. 30, he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings against Texas, and over his last three starts he gave up 14 runs over 14 2/3 innings. On the season, by our tough standards, Gonzalez is only seven-for-25 on quality starts, and just one for his last seven.

Baltimore is 12-13 in Gonzo's starts this year, with the UNDERS going 13-12.

But in his one start this season against Toronto Gonzalez allowed just one unearned run and three hits through 7 2/3 innings of a 6-1 Orioles victory back in May.

Stroman (3-0, 1.89) is two-for-three on quality starts since joining the Jays rotation two and a half weeks ago. In his season debut he gave up three runs in five innings against the Yankees, but over his last two starts, against Boston and the Yankees (again) he's allowed just one run and 11 hits through 14 innings.

The Blue Jays are 3-0 in Stroman's starts, with the UNDERS going 2-1.

In his lone career start against Baltimore, in September of last year, Stroman got nicked for five runs through six innings of a 5-2 Toronto defeat.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Toronto leads the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .333 team on-base percentage, and ranks second with a .453 team slugging percentage.

Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 20th against righties with a .311 team OBP but third with a .433 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The totals are a dead-even 36-36 in games played at Camden Yards this season, even as they've averaged 9.5 runs per, fourth-most among all ML ballparks.


Injury Update
Baltimore slugger Chris Jones has missed recent action with a bad back, and his status for Tuesday is uncertain.


Jays-O's Free Picks
Motivation is the key factor in our free MLB picks on this contest; Toronto is battling for home-field advantage in the upcoming playoffs, while Baltimore, well, is not. We also give the Jays edges in the pitching match-up and with the sticks. We like Toronto for tonight, and we'll take a gamble with a run-line play. Also, we can see this game getting to 6-3 or 7-2, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Blue Jays +115 on the run line at Heritage & OVER 8.5 runs (+100) at Pinnacle

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