Savvy Capper Knows Twins on Run Line is Safe Bet as Brewers Stand No Chance in Minnesota

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 5, 2015 3:47 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 5, 2015 3:47 PM UTC

We are excited to add Twins -1.5 to our baseball betting ticket on  Friday, as the Brewers are clearly play-against material. Find out what factors have influenced this handicapper's decision.

Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) vs. Minnesota Twins (Gibson) (-1 ½ R/+150) 8:10 ET
The Milwaukee Brewers bring their 18-36 MLB worst record and a 9-16 road mark (tied for the fewest road wins in baseball) to Target Field for the 1st of a 3-game weekend set.  There they will meet a Minnesota team who is playing .604 baseball (one of only 3 teams to do so) with their 31-22 record.  Their 19-7 home record is the best in the American League.  The Twins return home following a 2-game split at Boston, while Milwaukee lost the last 2 of 3 at St. Louis.  As a result, we have the night’s biggest home/road dichotomy backed by a pitching mismatch.

Following an 82 win season of last, little was expected of Milwaukee who totally tanked beginning July 1st of last season. Few expected, however, that it would result in the worst record in the league.  The 18-36 record is for real, as they have a .569 batting OPS and .760 hitting OPS.  Milwaukee is just 2-9 of late, in which they have averaged only 2.8 RPG with a .232 BA. Tonight, they may again take the field without their best hitter, Ryan Braun.  Unfortunately for the Brewers, Kyle Lohse will be towing the rubber on their behalf.  With a 6.50 ERA, a .284 BAA and 13 HR allowed, Lohse is having a huge underperforming season.  We want no part of either, Milwaukee or Lohse, as they approach this 3-game set.

Conversely, Minnesota has been one of the biggest surprises in MLB.  The MLB odds today are highly in their favor. Though their OPS numbers do not warrant the 32-21 record, they are clearly performing their best at Target Field.  In their last 17 games at home, the Twins are 14-3 with a .297 BA, scoring 5.8 RPG.  Minnesota is 7-2 recently in the series.  In addition, Minnesota has made their money by going 21-5 vs. losing teams.  Tonight, the Twins send surprising starter, Gibson, to the mound.  Following a shaky outing to begin the season, he has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 9 starts for a 1.85 ERA.  That includes 5 outstanding starts from this mound, in which Gibson is 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA.

I am eager to back the Twins with my MLB Picks in this home/road and pitching mismatch which will result in the run line blowout of the night. Note that Milwaukee is averaging just 3.5 RPG on the road and 29 of their 36 losses are by 2 or more runs.  With a major pitching mismatch on Friday, it will be no surprise if the Minnesota offense continues their onslaught at Target Field against Lohse.  

MLB Picks: Take Minnesota Twins 1.5 (+155) at BookMaker 

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