Saturday's Pitching Matchups Provide Profitable Betting Opportunities

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, May 6, 2017 2:15 PM GMT

This Saturday we have pitching matchups with strong trends that can be taken advantage of as our MLB handicapper makes his Picks of the Day. Find out where's the value on today's hefty slate.
 

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/kL4sa_zT2UY", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are down to their 7th starting option with Felix Hernandez and Drew Smyly on the DL. On Saturday, Chase DeJong gets the call again and hopes to avoid another disaster on the mound.

Chase DeJong made his first MLB start at Cleveland last Friday, and he was literally chased from the field to the tune of 6 earned runs over just 2.2 innings pitched. He gave up hits to half of the batters he faced (18), struck out one, and walked two. The notes on DeJong peg him as a classic AAAA player, with fringe secondary pitches that won’t work multiple times through a MLB batting order. He has had some success in long relief this year, but DeJong is can’t be trusted to not give up at least some runs on Saturday night. This will leave some innings to the Seattle bullpen, who I have been fading recently as a run giving sieve.

Facing DeJong will be Martin Perez of the Rangers, who has had serious issues with command to start the season. With a few exceptions, the Seattle lineup has patience and will draw walks when they are there for the taking. Perez’s WHIP of 1.83 and 20/19 K/BB rate is an indication that will be the case, and with Seattle currently hot on the offensive side of the ball a shutout is not likely. This should be a high scoring game on both sides, making the Over of 8.5 tremendous value at BetOnline on Saturday night.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140088, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,19,169,123], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds

The Under was slammed once it opened on this matchup in Cincinnati. Even with the line move our handicappers thinks it is still ok to go with the flow.

San Francisco has had little to cheer about this season with their awful start, but one bright note has been the results of Ty Blach as he fills in the rotation. Blach should be hitting his physical prime right now, and has improved in each year through the minor leagues. Including his bullpen work early in the season, Blach has put up a 2.55 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and a .161 batting average against. That BAA obviously won’t continue, but his .239 BAA in AAA last year over 162.2 innings is very real. Both of his starts have went under the listed total this season.

Lefty Amir Garrett takes the mound for the Reds, and he has been great at home this season. The rookie has been bit by the long ball, which is not like him considering he has not run a HR/FB% over 9.2% in his last 4 seasons of minor league ball. He’s allowing just a .218 batting average against over 30 innings pitched, which is excellent.

The real story here is that San Francisco and Cincinnati both struggle mightily against left handed pitchers. San Francisco only averages 3.3 runs and a .240 batting average, and the Reds 3.3 runs and a .187 batting average. One if not both of these starters figures to have an excellent game here. The first five inning line has not come out yet, but I will be backing these pitchers and taking the Under F5 as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Under 4 1H Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140873, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,19,1275,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":2 }[/]