Saturday's MLB Picks on Totals Feature A's/Indians & Padres/Rangers

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 11, 2015 3:25 PM GMT

Saturday, Jul. 11, 2015 3:25 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapping professional shares his two top totals selections on Saturday’s card. Join us as he covers the games between Oakland/Cleveland and San Diego/Texas.

A’s (Bassitt) vs. Indians (Carrasco) 6:35 PM ET
Chris Bassitt has been very good during his two starts this year. In those outings he posted a stellar 2.53 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and both games went under the total. The A’s played in a plethora of games that went over the total to start this season. However, that trend has turned the opposite way of late. The A’s are 5-1 under the total in the last six and 10-2 under during their previous twelve games. Those previous ten have averaged just a combined 6.1 runs scored per game.

The Indians have gone under the total in each of their previous four with a combined average of only 4.5 runs scored per game. Their pitching has been terrific during that stretch, allowing just 4 runs total and a combined 21 hits. Cleveland possesses a poor .223 team batting average during their last seven games.

For my MLB pick, I’m going to have a lean toward a low scoring game in this matchup. Heritage has the best prices at the time of this writing in that regard.

MLB Pick: A’s and Indians under 7.5 (-110) at Heritage.

 

Padres (Shields) vs. Rangers (Lewis) 9:05 PM ET
James Shields is 12-5 over the total in seventeen starts this season. He’s posted a lofty 4.85 ERA in ten road starts, and has a similar 4.94 ERA in his last four outings overall. The Padres have gone 37-19 (66.1%) over the total this season, when they’re installed at +125 to -125 on the money line and they’re currently +107 at Bookmaker.com.

Colby Lewis has struggled in his last three starts, posting a large 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rangers have gone 7-0-1 over the total this season at home when Colby Lewis is their starting pitcher, and those games have averaged a combined 14.0 runs scored per contest. Lewis is also 9-1 over the total this season when the number is 8.5 to 10.0.

The total of 9.0 across the landscape of major sportsbooks seems a bit high since both teams have struggled offensively in recent games. They’ve certainly dangled the proverbial carrot in front of us in an attempt to lure wagers on going under the total. However, I’m not falling for the trap, and 5Dimes price is a favorable won at even money.

MLB Pick: Padres and Rangers to go over 9.0 (+100) at 5Dimes.

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