Saturday Picks of the Day: June 10th

White Sox pitcher David Holmberg

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, June 10, 2017 12:47 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop is back with a deep dive on two pitchers that have struggled this year with velocity. His research results in his two Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/92hgZ0ECtRY", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]    Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres

 

The future is now for the San Diego Padres, as they throw Rule 5 pick Miguel Diaz on the mound against the Kansas City Royals. The opposing pitcher insures a soft landing for the Padres fireballer.

Miguel Diaz gets his first major league start of his career on Saturday, and luckily for him, it is against the struggling Royals who only average 3.7 runs and a .239 batting average against righties. Diaz has a fastball with movement that sits comfortably in the high-80’s, which he pairs with an 87-mph changeup with sink. He’s got nasty stuff for sure and has been used out of the bullpen all year. His ERA is tainted by two back-to-back appearances against the Dodgers in early May in which he gave up 9 earned runs over two innings. He’s been solid in most appearances, and even if he doesn’t get past 5 innings the San Diego bullpen is better than Kansas City’s.

And Kansas City will be using their bullpen with Ian Kennedy on the mound. Kennedy has lost two ticks on his fastball, went on the DL, then has come back with no velocity back. He’s getting destroyed on the mound. Kennedy has put up a 9.52 ERA since coming back from the DL on May 21st over 4 starts. He should not be favored in this game, even against a prospect making his first start. Look for San Diego to get up on him early; I will be taking the Padres at +109 on the moneyline as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: San Diego +108Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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 Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians

 

In this nationally televised game we find a heavily favored home team with a questionable pitcher on the mound. Our MLB handicapper turns to the underdog run line for wagering value.

Josh Tomlin doesn’t walk batters as his 44/4 K/BB ratio shows, but you will have added control when you are throwing 86 mph fastballs. Tomlin has seen a sharp drop in velocity this year, almost 2 ticks, and his spin rates are also down. Yes, there are websites that track pitch spin rates. However, they do correspond to pitch effectiveness and movement (unless you are R.A. Dickey). Because of Tomlin’s walk rates, he does have a large ERA vs FIP difference of 5.54 to 3.77. He will start this game on 7 day’s rest after the last pitching on June 2nd. Tomlin faced the White Sox in April and gave up 7 earned runs in just 1.2 innings.

David Holmberg gets his third start of the year after joining the White Sox rotation in late May. He’s been serviceable and is carrying a 2.50 ERA on the year – a 4.70 ERA as a starter. His batting average allowed increased in his conversion as well, but not my much. He is allowing a .179 batting average as a starter versus just .091 as a reliever. I’ll back Holmberg on the run line here, and even if he doesn’t make it deep into the game the White Sox 3.37 bullpen ERA is decent. Take the +1.5 runs and the White Sox at almost even money.

 

Free MLB Pick: White Sox +1.5 -101Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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