Saturday MLB Betting: Don't Miss Out On These Special Baseball Picks

Ian Cameron

Friday, May 6, 2016 6:43 PM GMT

Friday, May. 6, 2016 6:43 PM GMT

Our expert sports handicapper is right on the ball with some Overnight Betting Lines & MLB picks for you to get a head start on Saturday's baseball games.

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Mike Pelfrey is as close to an automatic ‘bet against’ candidate as there is of any starting pitcher in MLB right now. He has been on a downward trend for multiple starts and it figures to get worse, not better when he takes the mound on Saturday afternoon against the Texas Rangers. Pelfrey has a 5.68 ERA for the season and an even worse 7.47 ERA in his last three starts allowing 14 runs on 25 hits in 15.2 innings during that span along with more walks (8) than strikeouts (6).

He’s also allowing home runs on 12.5% of all fly balls hit against him which is not the kind of ratio you want when you are pitching at Comerica Park here in Detroit. Texas has been offensively challenged on the road but that is only a minor concern here as Pelfrey’s recent form has been subject to hits and runs in bunches from the likes of Minnesota and Oakland lately and neither of those teams is an offensive juggernaut. It’s also worth noting that Pelfrey has been horrendous in two daytime starts this season.

On the flip side, Texas has gotten a solid start to the season from A.J. Griffin in their rotation and he has been very sharp with a 2.32 ERA in 5 starts this season with an 8.22 ERA allowing 11 runs on 15 hits in just 7.2 innings pitched in day games this season. He does have a FIP of 3.30 and xFIP of 4.26 which indicate he is likely to regress a bit to a certain degree but I still expect him to have the better of the starting pitching matchup in this one. I like both the side and total here as my MLB pick and will recommend Texas at -125 and Over 9 at -108 and both can be found at those prices at Heritage Sports.

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Free MLB Pick: Texas at -125 and Over 9 at -108
Best Line Offered: at The Greek

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
We have a matchup of two offenses in good form, two starters with question marks and two horrific bullpens (Milwaukee 28th and Cincinnati 30th ranked bullpens in MLB) and it should provide the ingredients for a high scoring contest between the Brewers and Reds on Saturday night. Jimmy Nelson will be on the mound for Milwaukee and he has been solid this season with a 3.05 ERA and he is striking out a lot of hitters and certainly has future upside as a viable starter in the Majors but this ballpark and this Cincinnati lineup may not be a good fit for him.

Nelson faced the Reds three times last season here at Great American Ballpark and he allowed 15 runs on 23 hits in 13 innings of work in those starts combined. The home run ball has been one of his few problem areas this season as he’s surrendered 7 home runs in 38.1 innings pitched and that could be trouble here in a home run hitting park. Brandon Finnegan is slated to return from the DL for this start after dealing with a hamstring injury and he has average stuff at best.

The Reds lefty has progressively gotten worse with a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.62 ERA in two home starts and he isn’t likely to be razor sharp in his first outing since returning from the DL here. Milwaukee has seen Finnegan once and although they were held to just 1 run on 3 hits last season when they faced him, they should fare much better in this game at the plate as they are in good offensive form scoring 40 runs in their last 6 games. The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Brewers and Reds and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Over 8.5 runs at +100 currently at Bookmaker/BetCRIS looks like a cheap number on the MLB odds boards to bet in this NL Central matchup.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 at +100 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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