Saturday, July 22nd MLB Picks of the Day

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Mark Lathrop

Saturday, July 22, 2017 1:41 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, looks for value in an inflated line in Denver and a square line in Los Angeles. Read on as he breaks down two games featuring NL West teams and makes his Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

The Dodgers finally lost a game, which our MLB handicapper actually likes as a refocusing factor for them. Here they’ll match up with what used to be the Braves best starter.

Atlanta Braves vs. LA Dodgers

There’s something to be said about the first game of a home stand after a long road trip. Distractions abound as players come home for the first time, visit family, and get tickets for friends. The Dodgers got that dud of a game out of the way on Thursday night as they lost to the Braves 6-3.

Rich Hill takes the mound on Saturday and he is on a great stretch right now. He allowed a .221 batting average allowed in June and has allowed a .162 batting average in July. He’s inducing weak contact like a champ right now and has a hard-hit rate of just 27.2% and a line drive rate of just 14.6%. That line drive rate is the lowest in his career. Compare that to Atlanta’s starter Julio Teheran, who has put up an ERA of 1.86 in the month of July even though his hard-hit rate has gone up to 37%, pull rate to 44.4%, and line drive rate to 20.5%. That combination is a recipe for dingers - and what do you know Teheran is running his highest HR/FB% of his career right now. I like Hill to continue his success against this Atlanta lineup, and for the Dodgers to come together to cover the run line at -110 at Heritage as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers RLBest Line Offered at Heritage

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Two great young arms match up in Colorado on Saturday evening and our MLB handicapper thinks both have a great chance of putting in quality starts.

Pirates vs. Rockies  

Chad Kuhl has taken a step forward this year after his velocity increased on his fastball. He’s keeping the ball in the yard two which should serve him well in this start at Coors Field. Kuhl has not given up a home run in 3 consecutive starts, including starts on the road at Chicago and Philadelphia. He has also not given up multiple home runs in any road start this year. Kuhl is running an above average 4.14 FIP in 2017 and a 3.69 FIP in July.

Kuhl will match up with German Marquez, another fire baller that touches 98 on the gun. Marquez allows a commendable 14.6% HR/FB rate at home in Colorado, while his road HR/FB rate of 6.0% is an indicator of just how good he is. He is carrying a nice 3.91 FIP over 83.0 innings on the year and Colorado is 5-2 in his home starts. Can’t say I can choose between either of these pitchers, so I will choose both and the Under of 12 as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Under 12 Best Line Offered at 5Dimes

2017 MLB Record, 143-131-8, +1.07 Units (2 Pending)