San Diego Padres vs CH White Sox: Free Baseball Picks for May 14th

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, May 14, 2017 2:02 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 14, 2017 2:02 PM UTC

Happy Jered Weaver Day! Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, loves fading this Padres pitcher and today is no different. Every 6th day is a profitable opportunity for him as he makes multiple MLB picks in Weaver's latest start.

San Diego Padres vs CH White Sox  

The Chicago White Sox have just what they’ll need to get out of a recent slump on Sunday, as they will face my favorite pitcher to fade this year, Jered Weaver of the San Diego Padres. The White Sox are heavily favored in this game and are steep -190 favorites at Bovada, and the run line pays only slightly plus odds for Chicago after giving up a run and a half. The total has been posted at 9 runs across the board, and if you shop for a reduced line you can take either the over or under at -105 over at 5Dimes.

Jose Quintana starts this game for the White Sox and he has been hit by a little bit of bad luck on the season with decisions, having lost some games in which he pitched well enough to win. Quintana has accrued value of 4.8 WAR or better in each of his last three seasons, so he is deserving of a ton of slack until the wheels really come off. His velocity is nearly identical, HR/FB% is stable, and his swinging strike rates are up a touch. If anything, Quintana’s 2-5 record is indicative of poor run support and an increase in walks. The loss of control has Quintana using his fastball more in all counts, which will result in more hard hit balls and a BABIP rise.

Quintana’s poor run support should end in this game with Jered Weaver on the mound for the Padres. I’m counting the days until Weaver’s last start, but until then we need to savor every one of them and fade the hell out of it. Weaver has put up a 7.91 FIP over 35.2 innings pitched on the year, is 0-4 over seven starts, and has been hammered to the tune of a 31.1% HR/FB rate. What is incredible is that Weaver has actually gotten lucky to not have results even worse! Weaver’s 2017 BABIP is running nearly 60 points lower than last year, so more hits could start dropping in – if that is even possible.

I hate playing run line favorites, but this is one case where we just have to hold our nose and go for it. Getting plus odds will make it more palatable though, so I will be taking the White Sox at -1.5 runs +115 as one of my Sunday MLB selections.

The total is a little trickier in this game, with both teams averaging a combined 6.3 runs against starters of the opponents’ handedness. This is a special situation though, and even if Quintana pitches great Weaver could give up 6 runs by himself. For that reason I’m also taking the 'Over' across the board – Over 4 first 5 innings and Over 9 as two more Sunday MLB Picks.


Free MLB Picks: White Sox -1.5, Over 4 F5 & Over 9Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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