Samardzija-Weaver Matchup to Make White Sox vs. Angels Total Go 'Over'

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 19, 2015 12:38 AM GMT

Although we have two solid veteran pitchers career-wise on the mound, I'm going to back over the total when the Los Angeles Angels host the Chicago White Sox in what should be a high-scoring affair.

White Sox vs. Angels Odds
The number for this game set by MLB odds makers came out at 7.5 with a higher juice on the over. The line has not moved much but the juice has and you can get over the 7.5 at -105 at Pinnacle. I can see why people would want to jump on the under in this spot but when we break down the numbers this should be a higher scoring game than people anticipate.

 

Chicago White Sox
Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the White Sox with a 4.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 120 strikeouts, and 8-8 record. Recently he has been atrocious allowing 22 runs in his last three starts over just 15 innings. Granted two of those starts were against the Yankees and the Royals, but still he has not been sharp. On the road this year he has a 5.28 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and he is simply having the worst year of his career. Perhaps it was the fact that he did not get traded that has led to his lack of making any quality starts recently. I do anticipate he will pitch a little bit better than he has but the Angels should get to him for more than a few runs.

The White Sox rank 26th in runs scored per game at 3.74, 25th in OPS at .683, and 21st in batting average hitting .248 as a team. The White Sox are a much better hitting team on the road and all their offensive statistics away from Chicago. Recently, they have not been getting it done at the plate hitting just over .200 in their last few games. Still, their road numbers are solid and I look for them to have at least a few quality at-bats today to get a few runs or more.

 

Los Angeles Angels
Jeff Weaver gets the start for Los Angeles and comes in with a 4.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 59 strikeouts, and a 4-9 record. Those numbers don't quantify actually how good he is of a pitcher and recently he has been pretty decent. In his last two starts he has allowed just four earned runs off of eight hits and 11 innings. Those were starts after coming back from injury and he looked much better than he did earlier in the season. Still, in his last 10 starts he consistently gives up some runs here and there so look for him to be pretty good today but to not completely shut down the White Sox.

The Angels rank 16th in runs scored per game at 4.08, 21st in OPS at .698, and 25th in batting average hitting .245. No matter where they play they are a pretty consistent hitting team. On the road their run totals per game go up just a little bit, at home there OPS goes up just a little bit, and their team batting average stays consistent whether at home or on the road. This team has enough pieces to put up some runs in a hurry and I expect them to have a lot of nice at-bats today against the struggling Samardzija.

One would think that Samardzija is due for a good bounce back game, but I don't think that is today. Both he and Weaver are pretty good veteran pitchers but both these offenses statistically should have some solid at-bats today and put up more than a few runs on the scoreboard. This total to me is simply just too low and I look for more of a final of around 6-3.

Neither team has been particularly outstanding at the plate recently, but I predict a little bit of a break out today. With the total set pretty low for an American League game both these teams combined should put up enough to get as well over the number.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) at Pinnacle