Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
A Cy Young Award candidate and a pitcher performing better for his new team than his mainstream numbers indicate should combine for a low scoring game Sunday when Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox (59-70, 28-38 away) pay a visit to fellow southpaw Chris Capuano and the New York Yankees (66-61, 32-31 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 1:05 ET in a game available on YES.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.
Trying to Stay in Playoff Hunt
The Yankees are going for the three-game sweep here after taking the first two games by scores of 4-3 and 5-3 respectively, and while they have a tough task at hand if they hope to catch the first place Baltimore Orioles as they are seven games back while in second place in the American League East, they only trail the Seattle Mariners by 3½ games for the second and last wild card spot.
The White Sox obviously have no such playoff hopes as they are in fourth place in American League Central and 13½ games behind the surprising division leaders, the Kansas City Royals, but at 11 games under .500 they have actually show marked improvement after being one of the worst MLB picks in the Major Leagues last season finishing 63-99.
Probable Cy Young Runner-Up
Sale comes off of just his third defeat of the season at the hands of those red-hot Orioles, but even there Sale received credit for a Quality Start vs. a Baltimore team that has probably given him more trouble than any other team throughout his brief career, as he allowed three runs albeit on eight hits in six innings with eight strikeouts.
Now, it appears that Felix Hernandez is the favorite the win the American League Cy Young Award this season, but Sale may clearly be the second best pitcher in the AL. Even with Monday’s defeat, Sale is 10-3 with a spiffy 2.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP for the season with a spectacular ratio of 158 strikeouts vs. 26 walks in136 innings!
To give you an idea of how great a year Sale is having, his 10.46 strikeouts per nine innings are the fourth most in the majors among qualified starting pitchers and he has the 13th best walk rate at just 1.72 per nine. He was stellar in his first and only start vs. the Yankees this season allowing just one hit while tossing six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts.
Better Than His Record in New York
Capuano began this season in the Boston Red Sox bullpen, but he went into the starting rotation immediately after the Yankees acquired him in July, which was his role throughout his career until this year. And while his numbers with the Yankees do not look good on the surface at 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA, he has actually pitched much better than that.
You see, Capuano has 32 strikeouts in 30.1 innings with the Yankees vs. only seven walks and just one home run allowed, resulting in an excellent 2.34 FIP and 2.99 xFIP since donning pinstripes. He now faces a White Sox lineup that has produced just 2.95 runs per game vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while batting .246 against them in that time, and he has allowed just one run in 10.2 innings in his career vs. Chicago with 15 strikeouts vs. two walks.
Yankees on an ‘under’ Roll
The Yankees have not been hitting much themselves while actually getting adequate pitching, and that combination has resulted in the ‘under’ going 25-9-2 in the last 36 games overall. Meanwhile, the White Sox lack of production vs. southpaws has resulted in the ‘under’ going 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. left-handed starters.
Look for those patterns to continue for at least one more game with a very low scoring game on Sunday.
MLB Pick: White Sox, Yankees ‘under’ 7 (-106)