Safe MLB Picks 'Over & Under' Thursday's Run Total Odds

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, August 6, 2015 2:08 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015 2:08 PM UTC

We’ve gone a terrific 16-7-3 the last thirteen days with our MLB totals and are confident that today's matchups between Diamondbacks/Nationals and Giants/Cubs will further improve our record.

Diamondbacks (Hellickson) vs. Nationals (Ross) 4:05 PM ET
Jeremy Hellickson has a large 5.94 ERA in ten road starts this season. He’s made one start versus Washington in 2015, allowed 4 earned runs on 4 hits while walking 4, and lasted 5 2/3 innings during a 9-6 loss. Hellickson was very shaky in his previous outing versus Houston. The Arizona right-handed hurler allowed 6 earned runs, 7 hits, walked 3, and gave up 3 home runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Arizona has gone 7-1 over the total during their last eight, averaging 5.5 runs and 10.6 hits per game during that stretch.

Joe Ross has been pretty solid in six starts this season. However, after allowing no home runs in his first four starts, he’s allowed 3 in 12 1/3 innings during the previous two. The Nationals will be facing an Arizona club that has a bullpen staff which averages 3.45 innings pitched per game. Washington has gone an incredible 26-6 over the total in 2015 versus an opponent with a bullpen averaging 3.20 or more innings pitched per game. One more note, Washington is coming off an 11-4 loss yesterday, and they’ve gone 11-3 over the total this year following a game in which they allowed 8 or more runs.

These teams have seen all six of their meetings this season go over the total. During those six contests, there was a combined average of 13.5 runs scored, 21.3 hits, and 3.0 home runs per game. I like this game to be a high scoring affair. 5Dimes clearly has the most favorable price regarding this specific MLB pick.

MLB Picks: Play on the Diamondbacks and Nationals over 7.5 (-110)


Giants (Heston) vs. Cubs (Hammel) 8:05 PM ET
Chris Heston has pitched much better at home this season than on the road. He’s gone 7-2-1 over the total in ten road starts with a 4.01 ERA. Speaking of the road, San Francisco is 34-16-4 over the total during away games this year. The Giants have scored 6 runs or more, and had 11 hits or more, during each of their previous three games.

Jason Hammel has posted a lofty 5.02 ERA and 1.74 WHIP during his previous three starts. The Cubs have scored 4 runs or more in each of their previous six games.

I look for runs to be plentiful tonight at Wrigley Field. One of my MLB picks for Thursday will be reflective of that prediction. Heritage currently requires the least amount of juice to make this exact wager.

MLB Picks: Play on the Giants and Cubs over 7.0 (-110) at Heritage.

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