Safe Bet: Dodgers to Win by >1.5 at Great American Ball Park

Darin Zank

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 2:35 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015 2:35 PM UTC

The Dodgers with Brett Anderson are big favorites for tonight at Cincinnati, and that is cause for concern. How are we approaching this contest from a betting point of view?

Dodgers-Reds Wednesday Odds
In the early betting the best price we could find on LA with lefty Brett Anderson was the -172 offered at BetOnline, while Cincinnati and fellow lefty David Holmberg were getting +165 at YouWager. Also, most of today's MLB betting market listed a total on tonight's game of eight runs, with a few 8.5's out there, too.


The Situation
Los Angeles took the opener of this series Tuesday night 5-1, snapping a five-game losing streak. Cincy, meanwhile, has lost 10 of its last 11 contests.

At 68-56 LA still leads the NL West by 2.5 games over second-place San Francisco.

On the other end of the stick the Reds, at 52-72, have fallen behind Milwaukee and into last place in the NL Central, and not because the Brewers have been doing anything great lately.

The Dodgers lead this season series four games to one, with the OVERS going 3-2.


Wednesday's Whirlers
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game of 11 days ago, an 8-3 Los Angeles victory.

Holmberg (1-3, 6.57) is two-for-six on quality starts since joining the Cincinnati rotation last month, but 0 for his last two. Last Friday Arizona got him for five runs and 11 hits through five innings, and just before that these Dodgers bombed him for seven runs in just two-plus innings. Prior to that, though, through his first three starts he allowed just six runs over 17 2/3 innings. On the whole Holmberg has allowed 29 hits, including seven homers, through 25 innings, with 14 walks and 14 strikeouts.

Cincinnati is 1-4 in Holmberg's starts, with the totals going 3-2.

This will be Holmberg's second career start against Los Angeles, and he's hoping it goes a little better than the first.

Holmberg, a former second-round draft choice of the White Sox back in 2009, owns a career Minor League record of 41-44, with a 3.68 ERA; down at Triple-A Louisville this year he's 7-6/4.40, allowing 129 hits in 108 innings, with 38 walks, which is too many, and only 61 strikeouts.

Anderson (7-8, 3.52) is 11-for-24 on quality starts, and by our tough accounting 0 for his last three. Last Friday he gave up three runs in six innings against Houston, and over his last three starts he's allowed 13 runs through 17 innings. On the season Anderson has allowed more hits, 148, than innings pitched, 141, walked 38 and struck out 95.

The Dodgers are 12-12 in Anderson's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 13-10 margin.

In his only career start against Cincinnati, 11 days ago, Anderson allowed three runs through six innings of that 8-3 LA win.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks 10th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .261 team batting average, and third with a .339 team on-base percentage.

Cincy ranks 17th against lefties with a .254 team BA and 12th with a .320 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Great American Ball Park this season are 32-26 on the OVERS, averaging 9.0 runs per.


Injury Update
Cincinnati is playing without spark-plug Billy Hamilton (54 SB), who's on the DL with a sprained shoulder. The Reds are 1-6 since he went down.

On the other side of the scorecard Los Angeles C Yasmani Grandal (15 HR) missed yesterday's game with a sore shoulder of his own, and is very questionable for today's game.


Dodgers-Reds Wednesday Free Picks
We're not big fans of Anderson's at the moment, but he gets the check mark in the pitching match-up, and his team owns an edge with the sticks. So we like LA, and we'll make a play on the run line. Also, we regard both these bullpens as a bit iffy, and with a little “help” from them this game should play OVER.

MLB Picks: Dodgers +101 on the run line at Pinnacle and OVER 8.5 runs (+100) at Heritage

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