Runs Will Be Hard To Come By When Yankees Try To Bounce Back vs. Rays

Michael Pineda Pitching

Tuesday, September 20, 2016 12:57 PM GMT

After a collapse vs Boston, the Yankees are in serious need to bounce back against the Rays. Our MLB betting expert looks into the odds and provides his insight on what can the bettors expect from today's clash.

After really tough series in Boston, the New York Yankees now travel to take on Tampa Bay. We're going to look at the total for this game and see if there is more value in backing under or over the current total set by oddsmakers. It will be interesting to see if the Yankees can bounce back after collapsing in Boston.

 

New York Yankees
Michael Pineda takes the mound for New York and comes in with a 4.94 ERA and 1.35 whip but at 9.31 ERA versus Tampa Bay this season. Just looking at those numbers alone would seem reason enough to back over this small total set by odds makers. In four starts this season he has got rocked by Tampa Bay on three of those occasions but in his last outing versus them on September 9th he allowed just two earned runs in almost 5 innings of work. Although he has been consistently bad against Tampa Bay for the most part in his last three starts overall he has been pitching well allowing a total of just four earned runs in almost 13 innings of work. Although I don't expect him to come in and be lights out I do expect him to pitch a lot better and similar to his last outing versus Tampa Bay as compared to his first three. 

At the plate, New York had some really good at-bats in Boston but they can struggle at times and I expect for them to do that today against a pitcher with whom they have had little success against this season.

 

Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Smyly gets the start for Tampa Bay and comes in with a 4.98 ERA and 1.27 whip but just a 2.08 ERA versus New York. Looking at both Pineda's and Smyly's ERA's alone might make you shake your head a little bit about why this total is so low.  However, both pitchers have been solid recently and Smyly has been excellent against the Yankees allowing just three total earned runs in 13 inning of work.  As well, batters are hitting just .215 against him at home and in his last several starts he hasn't got knocked around a lot allowing just 22 earned runs in his last 47 innings of work.  

At the plate Tampa Bay remains one of the worst hitting teams in baseball and although they have a bit of resurgence the past ten games they still rank in the bottom third of the league in most categories like 26th hitting just .245 as a team.

 

MLB odds
Odds makers have set the total for this game at 7.5 across the board.  For my MLB pick, I recommend taking the under of 7.5 like at BetOnline, where you will find a 50% Free Play Bonus.  That is the lowest juice I can find so you will get good value at this sports book.  Although the total seems low don't buy into that, runs will be hard to come by in this matchup.

July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 12-11-1

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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