Runline +100 is Best Betting Value for Dbacks vs. Nationals

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 18, 2014 2:18 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 18, 2014 2:18 PM UTC

We’ll take a look at tonight’s MLB affair between Washington and Arizona for the sole purpose of finding MLB betting value. Read our insightful sports handicapping article which culminates with a MLB free pick.

NL East Leader versus NL West Cellar Dweller
The Nationals will host the Diamondbacks tonight in Washington with the first pitch slated for 7:05 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Nationals are a -200 money line home favorite and the posted total is 7.0. Washington is -1.5 (+100) and Arizona is +1.5 (-120) on the run-line. Washington has gone 10-5 versus Arizona over the past 3-seasons.


A Starter Struggling to Win
The starter for the Diamondbacks this evening Vidal Nuno has struggled to win since being acquired via trade from the Yankees in early July. He’s gone an abysmal 0-7 against the money (-7.35 units) for his new team, despite posting a respectable 3.92 ERA, and a very good 1.12 WHIP. He’s been a victim of a lack of run support by the Diamondbacks who’ve averaged a paltry 2.6 runs per game in his 7-starts. Nuno has gone a combined 6-15 (-9.40 units) against the money in 2014 with both the Yankees and Diamondbacks. The young right-hander has seen just 4 of his last 16-starts (25%) go over the total.


Nationals Hurler in Top Form
The Nationals Jordan Zimmerman has been superb in his last 3-starts, going 3-0 against the money, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and struck out 17 while walking none. In his last 6-starts the Nationals right-hander has issued just 1-walk in 35.0 innings of work. This is nothing new for Zimmerman since he’s walked just 1 man per 6.9 innings pitched in 2014. Zimmerman is 22-4 against the money line over the last 2-seasons as a money line favorite of -150 or more, and the Nationals have outscored opponents by an average of 3.1 runs per game in those 26 contests.


Middle of a Long Road Trip
Tonight will be the 7th of a 10-game in 9-day road trip for Arizona which began with a doubleheader at Cleveland. They’ve gone 2-4 in the first 6-games of the trip, and just lost 3 of 4 at Miami in their previous series. The Diamondbacks have actually been a much better play on the road this season (-0.30 units) against the money line, than they’ve been at home (-15.80 units). They enter tonight having scored 3-runs or less in 6 of their last 7-games.


Nationals are Red-Hot
Washington enters this series having won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 11-games. This will be their 4th of a 7-game in 7-day home stand. The Nationals are 37-24 (.607) at home this season. Washington has scored 4-runs or more in 9 of their previous 11-games.


Final Analysis
One team (Washington) is surging toward a division title, and the other is playing out the proverbial string. The Nationals Jordan Zimmerman is pitching with a plethora of confidence right now, while Vidal Nuno of the Diamondbacks has been the polar opposite. I would never play, or advise anyone, to make a money line wager on a -200 favorite. I would do so on a run-line favorite of +100.

Free Pick: Washington -1.5 (+100) over Arizona on the run-line at Pinnacle Sports

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