Run-Line Value Play of the Day: Reds vs. Royals MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, May 20, 2015 3:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 20, 2015 3:58 PM UTC

When we recommend placing your MLB Picks on the Royals' run-line as the host the Reds, it is backed by a 21-4 (84%) betting system, fundamental and technical perspectives.

Cincinnati Reds (Marquis) vs. KC Royals (Guthrie) (-1 ½ R/+145) 8:10 ET
The Reds and Royals conclude this 2 game early week set with this 8:10 ET start on Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium.  This is a matchup of 2 teams and two pitchers headed opposite directions.  We gladly follow the momentum for a value-based run line winner.  

Cincinnati continues their downward spiral in the last 4 years.  In 2012 and 2013, the Reds won 97 and 90 games respectively.  Last year, they plummeted to 76 wins, a mark they are expected to match this season by preseason prognosticators.  They enter tonight with an 18-21 record, losers of 4 straight.  In that timeframe, Cincinnati has been outscored 33-12 with a 12.00 team ERA.  With Cueto pitching an outstanding game last night in a 3-0 loss, just imagine how bad the rest of the rotation has been!  Tonight, Cincinnati turns to Jason Marquis, an aging retread.  We should all be eager to fade Marquis in each start, as he will soon be out of the rotation.  For the season, Marquis has a 6.63 ERA with a .938 OPS and a .325 BAA.  In his last 2 starts, Marquis has managed only 8 2/3 IP, allowing 11 runs on 17 hits, including 5 homeruns.  As such, he presents as an outstanding candidate to play against with your MLB picks.  

The MLB odds favored KC Royals were the surprise team of 2014.  In the last 3 seasons, they have gone from 72 to 86 to 89 wins.  They are fooling preseason expectations, which expected the Royals to drift backward to the .500 mark.  Instead, their brand of solid fundamental baseball has led them to a 25-14 record and a 2 ½ game lead over Detroit in the AL Central.  Dating to the middle of last season, the Royals are on a 77-41 burst, including 4-1 of late in which they have outscored the opposition 28-9.  This includes consecutive shutout victories on this field against NYY and Cincinnati.  The win last night, boosted their series record to 6-1 against the Reds, including 4-0 on this field.  Tonight’s starter, Guthrie, began the year slowly with a 6.52 ERA in his first 5 starts.  But, the veteran right hander has turned things around in his last 2 starts with a pair of return to form performances.  In consecutive wins, Guthrie has posted a 2.92 ERA.  

Run line players take note!  With the Reds being outscored 33-12 in their 4-game losing streak, they are clearly in line for another blowout loss with Marquis on the mound.  The Royals are happy to oblige, and so are we, with the realization that 21 of their 25 victories (84%) have come by 2 or more runs.  

MLB Picks: Take  KC Royals -1.5 (+150 at BookMaker)

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