Run Line Parlay of the Year by MLB Handicapper Joe Gavazzi

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, August 15, 2014 3:41 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 15, 2014 3:41 PM UTC

Joe Gavazzi has been scrutinizing the MLB odds and betting trends for years, constantly on alert for the perfect synchronization of situations which will surely lead to a winning pick. He confidently shares his Parlay of the Year here. 

For the last 5 MLB seasons, I have tracked the run line results for every MLB team by margin of victory, both home and away.

The consistent numbers that have evolved show that just slightly higher than 70% of all MLB games are victories of 2 or more runs. Breaking it down by home and road, we find that this is 73-74% for road teams and 66-67% for home teams. In today’s two run line plays, we have team situations against the run line that are for the YTD (90%, 86%, 82%, and 80%). All of these situations are individually on at least a 29 game sample size. Each of these games features strong current form for my preferred side, along with a solid pitching mismatch favoring my selected teams.

When two situations like this occur in the same day, it can only be considered the one night in the entire MLB season in which I release my MLB Run Line Parlay of the Year.


LA Angels (Richards) (-1 ½ R, -130) vs. Texas Rangers (N. Martinez) 8:05 ET
10* LA Angels (-1 ½ R, -130)
After winning 90 games each of the last 4 seasons, the Texas Rangers have plummeted to the worst record in MLB at 47-74. The current streaks include 17-47, 12-38, and 10-23. They are just 4-14 on their once strong home field of late. The Angels are clearly at the other end of the spectrum with the 2nd best record in baseball of 70-49. They remain just 2 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the best record in the league, as well as the AL West. Recently, the Angels are on a run of 33-16.  As you may expect, this has played out to a 7-0 advantage over Texas in their recent meetings.

The pitching numbers are clearly on our side. LAA has won 17/24 Richards’ starts. The numbers for the YTD are outstanding, but they are even better on the road. In 13 road starts, Richards has worked 84 2/3 IP with a 1.91 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .161 BAA. Those numbers are even stronger more recently. In 6 recent road starts for Richards, he is 4-1 with a 1.40 ERA. Three times this year, Richards has faced Texas. He has a 1.89 ERA with 24Ks in 19 IP and a 3-0 record. Nick Martinez has clearly not been the answer for the struggling Rangers. Texas has won just 5/15 of his starts. For the YTD, Martinez has a 5.90 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. In his 3 most recent starts, Martinez has worked 15 2/3 IP, allowing 13 runs on 19 hits. His performance at home has been even worse. 26 1/3 IP from this mound, Martinez has a 7.86 ERA and 2.09 WHIP.

Players playing their MLB picks on the run line will note these outstanding numbers, 26/29 LAA road wins have come by 2 or more runs, while 31/36 Texas home losses have come by 2 or more runs. 

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Kansas City Royals (Duffy) (-1 ½ R, +120) vs. Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) 8:10 ET
10* Kansas City (-1 ½ R, +120) at 5Dimes Sportbook
The 2nd half of our 10* MLB Run Line Parlay features the raging Royals against the also ran Minnesota Twins. Entering tonight’s action, the Royals are on runs of 38-22 and 18-4. As a result, they hold a ½ game edge on Detroit in the AL Central. Minnesota has slipped into last place in that division as a result of a 31-44 recent slide. We simply cannot expect Nolasco to reverse those fortunes.

Nolasco has not pitched since July 6th, when he lasted just 2 IP allowing 6 runs in a 9-7 loss vs. NYY. Nolasco enters tonight with a 5.90 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Both of those are clearly 'play against' numbers. Duffy has been outstanding for the Royals. For the YTD, he has a 2.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has gone 4-0 of late, where in 24 1/3 IP he has allowed just 6 runs and 12 hits. His work has been even better on the road, where Duffy has spun a 2.19 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 61 2/3 IP. Historically, Duffy has pitched 31 innings against Minnesota with a 2.03 ERA.

Run line players will note these outstanding numbers, 27/33 KC road victories have been by 2 or more runs. For Minnesota 24/30 home losses have been by 2 or more runs. With these kinds of outstanding numbers, we can only team this with the LA Angels selection above for our 2014 MLB Run Line Parlay of the Year.

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