Run Line MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Dodgers Featuring Must-Play Odds

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, May 11, 2015 3:05 PM GMT

Major edges on the plate & at the mound give us confidence for victory with our MLB picks on Marlins vs. Dodgers.  We translate it into a run line winner backed by situations that are 100%, 80% and 76%.

Miami Marlins (Koehler) vs. LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R/EVEN) 10:10 ET
The Miami Marlins travel down the left coast to face the Dodgers tonight in the first of a 3-game, early week set.  Miami is 3-4 on their current road trip against quality teams, Washington and San Francisco, with whom they split a 4-game set.  The Dodgers return from their weekend in Colorado, where they won both games to enter on a 3-game win streak at 20-10. Keep that in mind when preparing your MLB picks today. 

The recent road trip has been a disaster for the “up and down” Miami bullpen.  The Marlins started the season 3-11, followed it with a 9-1 streak, but enter tonight with a 3-5 recent record.   A culprit has been the bullpen, who in the recent slide has a 5.57 ERA.   They could well receive several calls tonight with Koehler on the mound, who is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA.  His numbers across the board do not bode well in this matchup.  Koehler’s most recent outing was a 7-5 loss to Washington, when he worked 6 IP, allowing 5 runs including 3 homeruns.  That dropped Koehler’s road ERA for the season to 8.59.  Last season, Koehler also had problems on the road with a 4.63 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.  In a pair of outings from this mound, Koehler has pitched to a 6.23 ERA.

The LA Dodgers are living up to preseason expectations.  In the last 3 seasons, LA has increased their win total from 86 to 92 to 94 wins.  This year, it could be even better!  Their 20-10 start trails only St. Louis for the best record in MLB.  This includes a record of 13-2 on this field.  The Dodgers enter today on positive streaks of 8-2 and 3-0.  Look for those runs to continue behind Zach Greinke.  Again this season, Greinke is among the best pitchers in MLB.  He is 5-0 with a 1.56 ERA, winning his last 5 starts.  That means that since his last personal loss, Greinke has gone 14 starts with a 1.99 ERA and stands 10-0 in decisions.  

Eager to play the MLB Odds run line in this spot!   Thirteen of 17 Miami losses have come by 2 or more runs this season.  That fits nicely with the fact that 16 of 20 LAD wins have come by 2 or more runs.   But, this stat puts it over the top.  The Dodgers have won the last 5 starts by Greinke by a combined score of 31-12 and ALL BY 3 OR MORE RUNS.

MLB Picks: Take LA Dodgers -1.5 +105 at The Greek