Run-Line Betting Trends Signal Best Bet for Cardinals-Giants Pick

Mark Lathrop

Friday, August 28, 2015 1:34 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 28, 2015 1:34 PM UTC

This experienced MLB handicapper has picked up on a juicy trend directly applicable to tonight's Cardinals vs. Giants matchup. Join us as we share this valuable betting insight.

Cardinals vs. Giants MLB Odds Preview
The MLB leading St. Louis Cardinals try for their sixth win in a row and 83rd of the season on Friday night in San Francisco. A lock for making the postseason in some fashion, the Cardinals must be wondering what they have to do to shake the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have won 8 of their last ten to actually gain a game on the Cardinals and are 4.5 games back in the NL Central. The Cardinals might do some goofy stuff down the stretch after they have things locked up, but that time has yet to come. The odds in this game portray what appears to be an even pitching matchup, as the home team Giants can be found at +102 on the money line at Pinnacle. The run line has them as the underdog, but you’ll have to pay -175 to get +1.5 runs at the same book. An O/U total of just 6.5 runs has been posted for the game at multiple books.

The manager of that really nice Macy’s in downtown San Francisco must have had his bum pucker up a bit after hearing that the Giants traded for Cincinnati starter, Mike Leake. You see the most fascinating thing about Leake’s career so far is that he was arrested for shoplifting at a Macy’s earlier this spring. The thought that a pitcher making $425,000 a year would steal four shirts worth $60 is incredible. But I say that’s the type of boldness that Leake needs to bring to his pitching game, as he has been serviceable if not just above average for his career. This year is no exception and he has posted a 3.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 101/37 K/BB rate, and a .238 BAA. The Giants organization must think that a groundball pitcher who features a sinkerball will be more successful in AT&T Park versus the band box in Cincinnati. This would not be a hard thing to do as over his career Leake has posted some pretty extreme home/away splits; pitching to a 4.31 ERA at home versus a 3.40 ERA on the road. Most of the difference in these numbers can be attributed to giving up dingers at home. That will be harder to do in the heavier air of San Francisco Bay.

I attended Michael Wacha’s last game in San Francisco, when he came in relief in the 9th inning and gave up a walk off shot to Joe Panik in Game 5 of the NLCS. That put a cap on a bad year for Wacha in which he missed a bunch of time due to injury. 2015 has been quite different; however, as he has posted a 15-4 record, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 128/38 K/BB, and .230 BAA. A model of consistency, he has only given up 3 runs or more twice in his last ten games – and those games were at hot and windy Chicago against the Cubs and White Sox.


Baseball Betting Verdict
Although we might have to give up some juice tonight to follow a trend, the value in this game is getting that extra run on the run line for this home dog. Mike Leake should pitch well in his new digs and has pitched to a 4-0 win and a 1-2 loss against St. Louis this year with Cincinatti. If he were given that extra +1.5 runs in all of his games this season, that wager would result in a 17-4 record. Trusting that trend today is worth -170 and its’ worth tailing. Take the Giants at +1.5 on the run line at -170 at 5Dimes for your Friday night MLB Pick.

MLB Pick: Giants +1.5

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