Tonight’s Top MLB pick using Run-Line odds is applied to Yankees vs. Athletics, and is supported by 91% series dominator with a pitching mismatch and a 15-3 (83%) winning situation.
NY Yankees (Capuano) at Oakland A’s (Gray) (-1 ½ R/+155) 10:05 ET
The MLB odds underdog Yankees take on the Oakland A’s tonight in their 2nd of a 4-game weekend set at the O.co tonight. Oakland won the first game of the series (5-4) on Thursday. That continued the Oakland turnaround that has seen them go 4-2 since their 2-14 nosedive. The victory Friday night also increased their series stranglehold on the New Yorkers to a record of 15-5 L20 games, including 10-1 at this site. It now appears that the Yankees’ 3-game home win streak against the Royals (who entered Yankee Stadium with the best record in baseball) was more a function of the Royals’ cold streak than resurgence by NY. Even with those 3 victories, NY remains on a 4-11 slide, including 1-8 on the road.
At 25-23, the Yankees remain one game ahead of Tampa Bay for the division lead in the AL East. Just 3 ½ games separate first from worst in the 5 team division which makes it more a tribute to the mediocrity of the division that was in recent years the most feared contingent in MLB. The NY’ numbers have now plummeted across the board, leaving them with a mediocre .734 batting OPS and .707 pitching OPS. Tonight’s starter, Capuano, does not appear to be the answer. The Yankees have lost both of the starts by this retread in which he lasted just 7 1/3 IP, pitching to a 7.37 ERA and 1.91 WHIP.
Keep in mind before making your MLB picks that in the previous 3 seasons, Oakland had the best record in all of baseball with 278 total wins. Though the A’s were not predicted to match the excellence of those 3 seasons, a dip to 18-32 (the worst record in the American League) was certainly not anticipated. But, the batting and pitching numbers defy reason for that win/loss percentage. Though the A’s are just mediocre at the plate with a .712 OPS, they are among the MLB leaders with a .674 pitching OPS. Leading the way has been Sonny Gray. For the year, Gray has a 5-2 record, a best in MLB 1.77 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP. In this week’s article entitled “WHIP It Good (available today in the SBR.com forums), I point out that any pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.10 has a 138-67 TRGS (good for 67.3% winners). In searching for the reasons for the inferior Oakland record, one can only infer that it is a result of a Major League high, 51 errors, which has been the difference between many narrow wins and losses for Oakland.
Run line players take note, when the A’s play a clean game, they can still be a dominant team. With the Gray/Capuano pitching mismatch on the mound, such will be the case tonight. As a result, we must play the run line with confidence, knowing that 15 of 18 (83%) Oakland victories have come by 2 or more runs, including 6 of their 7 home wins this season.
MLB Picks: Take Oakland A’s (-1.5 +166 at Pinnacle Sports)