Here's our prediction & over/under MLB pick as the Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals play their rubber match after having split the first two games of their series.
The Toronto Blue Jays Can Win Because…
Buehrle has settled down for the Jays. Sure, the numbers still don’t look great as he has a 4.99 ERA this month but he’s been good recently. Yes, he’s allowed 11 earned runs in his last three outings but he’s also pitched a total of 24.1 innings in that span. He’s really settled in during the month of May, providing lots of solid innings eating. Since opening up May with an eight-run disaster against Cleveland, he’s allowed just 14 earned runs over his last five starts.
For his career, Buehrle is 5-2 against the Nats, which is a pretty decent record. His 4.64 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are subpar but it’s fairly clear that he’s getting the job done. Look for him to do more of what he’s been doing and that’s giving the Jays a chance to win.
The Nats have really cooled off recently as they’ve dropped four of their last five games. Their offense has been nowhere to be found as they’ve scored an average of 2.8 runs in that span. While the Jays aren’t great, the fact that the Nats offense has cooled off should give you pause before paying heavy juice in MLB odds.
The Washington Nationals Can Win Because…
They’re better than what they’ve showed recently. For whatever reason, Washington has been half asleep over the last week or so. Or if you’d like, you can also blame injuries. Case and point: on Wednesday, they’ll be starting Taylor Jordan. That’s because starters Stephen Strasburg (neck) and Doug Fister (elbow) are hurt.
The Jays did get the win in the second half of the doubleheader yesterday but this is not a very good team overall. They are just 7-12 over their last 19 games and they aren’t very good on the road either. They are just 9-17 in away games at this point.
The Nats feast on lefthanders as they are 8-3 against them on the season. Look for them to get to Buehrle and if that’s the case, they should be able to take care of business at home.
Even though the Jays have basically been a last-place team in their division, they’re probably not as bad as they look. Their offense has done fairly well – especially in the month of May where they finished second in the Majors in batting average. Expect them to get some runs off of Taylor Jordan, who gave up three earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work in his only start on the season.
As for the Nats, they see lefties well as mentioned above. The over is 7-4 when they face lefties and it’s 4-1 in the five times that they’ve faced Buehrle. That being the case, place your MLB picks over the number here.
MLB Pick: Over at Bodog