Royals vs. Mets: World Series Game 5 Preview, Analysis & MLB Picks

Sunday, November 1, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

Kansas City is within one win of a World Series title, and getting an underdog price for Sunday night's Game 5. How can we pass up that kind of Value on the MLB Odds board?

World Series Game 5 Odds
In the early betting the best Game 5 MLB odds we could find on New York with Matt Harvey was the -135 offered at 5Dimes, while Kansas City with Edinson Volquez was getting +134 at YouWager.

Also, 5Dimes was now chalking the Royals at -630 to win this Series, with the Mets getting +465 to rally and win the next three games.


Game 5: The Situation
Kansas City is within one win of its first World Series title in 30 years, after rallying to take Game 4 Saturday night 5-3. The Royals trailed 3-2 into the top of the eighth inning but two walks and a key New York error led to three KC runs, and a lead. The Mets later put the tying runs on base with one out in the bottom of the ninth but a New York runner got doubled-off first base on a weak liner to third to end the game.

Kansas City has outscored New York in this Series 20-17, and all four games have played OVER the totals.

This handicapper hit with his free MLB pick on Game 4, and is now 3-1 in this Series, having backed KC every time out.


Game 5's Starters
This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 1 of this Series, that 5-4 Kansas City victory in 14 innings.

Harvey, by our strict standards, is two-for-four on quality starts in these playoffs, coming off a decent outing in Game 1 of this Series in which he allowed three runs and five hits through six innings, two of those runs coming in his final frame. So over four starts this postseason Harvey has allowed nine runs - seven earned – on 20 hits and six walks through 24 2/3 innings. New York has split those four games.

On the season the Mets are 19-13 in Harvey's starts.

Volquez, back with the team after going home for his father's funeral, is only one-for-four on quality starts in these playoffs, also coming off a decent effort in Game 1 of this series, in which he allowed three runs and six hits through six innings. So in four starts this postseason he's allowed 11 runs on 16 hits and 13 walks through 22 2/3 innings. The Royals have split those four games.

For the season KC is 24-13 in games Volquez has started.


Game 5 Batting Splits
Kansas City ranked 11th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .321 team on-base percentage, and sixth with a .416 team slugging percentage. Also, in 12 games now this season in National League ballparks the Royals are 6-6, averaging 3.8 runs per game.

New York, meanwhile, ranked 21st this season against righties with a .312 team OBP and 20th with a .397 team slugging percentage.


Free Game 5 Pick
As we've mentioned in each preview for this Series so far we like the Royals in this particular match-up because we give KC the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens. And so far that's worked out just fine. Last night New York's Tyler Clippard issued back-to-back walks to begin that Royals rally, and closer Jeurys Familia followed that up by giving up back-to-back base hits. Meanwhile, Kansas City's Wade Davis hasn't allowed a run through 9 2/3 innings this postseason.

KC is a scrappy bunch, playing with verve, getting an underdog price. What's not to like about the Royals in this spot?

Pick: Kansas City Royals +134 at Youwager

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