Royals Still MLB Pick at Adjusted World Series Price

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 5:14 PM GMT

The Royals are down 3-2 in the World Series, but the LT Profits Group feel that they offer very good value at +215 to come back and win this series in seven games.

 

After the first five games of the 2104 World Series, the San Francisco Giants (99-78, 48-40 away) lead the Kansas City Royals (99-76, 47-40 home) 3-2. However, we see value at the current adjusted series price in backing a Kansas City comeback with the final two games (if necessary) Tuesday and Wednesday nights both to be played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:07 ET with both games televised nationally on FOX.

The current adjusted series price at 5 Dimes has Kansas City as a nice underdog to come back and win this series at current odds of +215.


Picked Royals Before Series
We are already on record for picking the Royals to win this World Series before it began, and with San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner now done for this series (as a starter at least), we still feel the same way with the Royals being home the last two games if both are necessary and we are looking to take advantage of these generous odds on a comeback.

After all, the Giants only won one game in this series not started by Bumgarner and that was in a game the Kansas City bullpen that is probably the best in the American League and that had been leading all playoff teams in post-season ERA at the time had a rare blow-up with the Royals blowing a 4-1 lead in Game 4. Do not expect an MLB pick replay of that bullpen meltdown by the Royals in the last two (hopefully) games at home.


Peavy vs. Ventura in Game 6
Tonight’s Game 6 is a pitching rematch of Game 2, which was also here in Kansas City and was won by the Royals 7-2. In that contest, Jake Peavy continued his career patterns of not working deep into post-season games and also not pitching well vs. the Royals. That outing was also further evidence that Peavy’s fine numbers with the Giants after being acquired from the Red Sox were more of a direct function of pitching his home games in spacious AT&T Park.

You see, Peavy had a spiffy 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 78.2 innings for the Giants, but he finished with just a 4.01 xFIP in the National League this year, a figure that is ballpark adjusted. He went on to allow four earned runs on six hits plus two walks with just one strikeout in Game 2, meaning that he has now failed to go even just six innings in any of his eight career post-season starts.

Peavy also has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Kansas City.

Granted, Royals’ starter Yordano Ventura has yet to match his fine regular season yet this post-season either, when as a rookie he won 14 games and posted a 3.20 ERA with 159 strikeouts vs. 69 walks while literally being the hardest throwing starting pitcher in the Major Leagues, averaging 96.6 MPH on a fastball that topped out at a blazing 101.9 MPH!

Ventura has just one Quality Start during these playoffs and he was only decent in his Game 2 start, allowing just two runs but eight hits in only 5.1 innings. Still, the Royals will take a repeat of that two-run performance here even if it is just over five innings, as their amazing bullpen is fully capable of taking care of the rest and forcing a Game 7.


Hudson vs. Probably Guthrie in Game 7
The Giants have named Tim Hudson as the Game 7 starter if there is one while the Royals have declined to name their probable starter if there is another game. However, the nod would probably go to Jeremy Guthrie, who pitched well in Game 3 helping the Royals to a 3-2 win. Just about the only other plausible possibility would be bringing back southpaw Jason Vargas on three days rest after he lasted just four innings in Game 4, but we expect Guthrie to go.

And that would set up yet another pitching rematch, this time of Game 3. Hudson has had a long successful career, but that career now appears to be in its twilight after he went 9-13 in this his first season with the Giants, and although he had a 3.57 ERA he had some good fortune there given his .270 batting average allowed. He did finally get to pitch in the World Series in Game 3 though, marking his first career such appearance after first joining the majors in 1999.

And Hudson pitched adequately but not great, allowing three earned runs on four hits in 5.2 innings while taking the loss, and that was back in pitching-friendly AT&T Park. Hudson was just 4-8 on the road this season, where again his 3.23 road ERA was deceptive given his .274 average allowed away from AT&T.

Now, we have never been high on Guthrie but he has admittedly continue to be serviceable having allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts including the regular season. He has gone exactly five innings in each of his two post-season starts, allowing one run on three hits vs. the Orioles in the ALCS and two runs on four hits vs. Hudson in Game 3 of this series, with both runs he was charged with scoring after he departed the game in the sixth inning.

And again, all that Kansas City needs with its bullpen is five effective innings from Guthrie or from any starter for that matter, and that could be enough to propel the Royals to the World Championship.


History Repeats?
Finally, if Guthrie does start Game 7 as expected for the Royals and these last two games are indeed pitching rematches of Game 2 and Game 3, it is interesting to note that those are the two games that the Royals have won in this series! So will recent history repeat, as well as more ancient history when the Royals were in this exact same position the last time they made the playoffs in 1985, trailing the Cardinals 3-2 before winning the World Series at home?

We vote “Yes” on both counts and recommend a nice play on Kansas City +215 to win this series entering Game 6 at home on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Royals +215 (Series – Adjusted Price after Game 5)