Royals to Beat the Astros at Underdog Price? You Bet! Volquez on the Mound is Everything KC Needs

Charles Stark

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 12:47 PM GMT

For my upset MLB pick, we head to Houston where the Astros take on the Royals. This is good value today on a good Royals team with a good pitcher on the mound even against the surprisingly good Houston Astros. Take the plus money on the Royals today.

Odds
With these two division leaders colliding MLB odds makers have made the Houston Astros a small favorite. Most sports books have the Royals from a pick to a little value on the plus money line. The best odds I have seen are at Pinnacle sports book at odds the +111. In this spot, as long as you don't have to pay juice, I think the smart plays on the Royals.

 

Pitching matchup
For the Kansas City Royals Edinson Volquez takes the mound with a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He has been solid this year with an 8-4 record, and has the kind of stuff to keep the Astros off-balance. In his most recent game he pitched seven strong innings allowing only one run and three hits at Oakland. His numbers have not fluctuated between at home are on the road, in away games he has an ERA of 3.14 and a 1.16 WHIP. The 10 year veteran should have a solid outing today. For the Astros rookie Vincent Velasquez gets the call and comes in with a 3.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has been decent so far this early in his career but in his two home appearances he hasn't been too sharp with a 5.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He does have 19 strikeouts in 19 innings and seems to have a lot of potential, still this is about value and I will back the veteran Volquez over the rookie Velasquez.

 

Team batting
Both of these teams have been more than respectable at the plate this season. The Astros are ranked seventh in the league in runs scored per game with the Royals ranked 10th. For the most part these teams are pretty similar at the plate, and in on base plus slugging percentage the Astros rank eighth in the league and the Royals rank 11th. We do find quite a disparity in batting average though, while the Royals are ranked second in the league at .272 the Astros are ranked toward the bottom of the league ranked 27th hitting only .240. That is a surprising stat for the Astros who lead their division.

From a pick to any kind of plus money I like the Royals in this spot because of the value. With a good veteran pitcher on the mound and a good hitting team to back them up this is a good spot to take the Royals against the surprising Astros even in Houston. Back Kansas City today with confidence for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +111 at Pinnacle