Ross Benjamin's Daily Pitching Report for August 16th

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, August 16, 2014 1:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 16, 2014 1:30 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds guru looks at a couple of outstanding starting pitching matchups for this evening. He’s leaning toward making a MLB bet on the total in the Oakland/Atlanta game, and will look to make a money line wager in the Seattle/Detroit affair.

Oakland A’s (Gray) vs. Atlanta Braves (Teheran) 7:10 PM ET
The A’s starter Sonny Gray has struggled some in recent starts going 0-3 in his last 3 against the money with an unimpressive 4.42 ERA. However, Gray has been a very profitable pitcher on the road this season, going 7-3 against the money line while posting a sparkling 2.39 ERA. Gray has seen his last 3 road starts all go under the total, and compiled an excellent 1.27 ERA in those outings.

The Braves right-hander Julio Teheran has been in relatively shaky form over his past 3-starts, posting a lofty 5.49 ERA in those appearances. On a positive note, Teheran has been lights out during 12-starts at Turner Field this year, posting a superb 1.88 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Braves right-hander has seen 17 of 24-starts (71%) go under the total during the past 2-seasons, when he’s installed as a money line home favorite of -110 or more.

Advantage: There are many parallels between these two starting pitchers heading into tonight. Teheran has been very good at home, Gray has been terrific on the road, and both have struggled a bit in each of their past 3-starts. My professional intuition tells me that both of these young hurlers will be on top of their games this evening. I like this one to be a low scoring affair, and I’m leaning toward making a wager to go under the total at Bet365.

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Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Detroit Tigers (Price) 7:05 PM ET
The Mariners starter Felix Hernandez deserves to be the frontrunner for the American League CY Young award in my opinion. He’s gone a terrific 17-8 against the money this season, with an extremely impressive 1.95 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. “King Felix” enters tonight having allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his previous 16-starts. During that stretch he’s gone 12-4 versus the money, and only 4 of those 16-outings went over the total. The Mariners ace has walked just 1 per 5.6 innings pitched this season. He’s gone 7-2 against the money versus the Tigers since 2008.

The Tigers will counter with a red-hot pitcher of their own in southpaw David Price. Price has seen 9 of his last 12-starts go under the total while posting a stellar 2.50 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and just shy of a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Like his counterpart (Felix Hernandez) this evening, Price has exhibited impeccable control in 2014. He’s walked just 1 per 7.1 innings pitched. The southpaw has started against Seattle 3-times in his career, all have come since 2013, and he’s posted a microscopic 0.83 WHIP in addition to a better than 14:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those outings.

Advantage: These are two of the best pitchers in the entire American League right now. Both hurlers enter tonight in top form over an extended period of time. The tie breaker for me is that I feel that Felix Hernandez might be a tad more dominating over the last month than David Price has been, and the Mariners have been a money maker on the road this season. I give the slightest of edges to Felix Hernandez in this outstanding starting pitching matchup.

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