Rookie Rodon Inspires MLB Picks 'Over' in White Sox vs. Angels

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 17, 2015 12:10 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 17, 2015 12:10 PM GMT

In this rematch of a August 12th game in Chicago, our MLB Handicapper analyzes the chances each of these young starters have in shutting down these two offenses again. Read on as he gives us the value play and his Monday MLB Pick!

White Sox vs. Angels
The reeling Anaheim Angels, fresh off of a 1-6 road trip, hope to get right again facing the underwhelming Chicago White Sox at home on Monday night. The recent stretch of bad play has the Angels out of playoff position, so they will be pressing to get a win. The White Sox have been treading water for some time, and at 55-60, are fifteen games back of the hot Kansas City Royals. The good thing about being fifteen games back, I guess, is that you can start your prospects. Like In this game where we will see toolsy White Sox rookie, Carlos Rodon. The early line on this game favors the home team Angels at -140 on the money line at Heritage, while the O/U total can be found at 7.5 at multiple books. This is also a pitching rematch of a 3-2, 13 innings White Sox win over the Angels in Chicago on August 12th.

Taking the mound again for the Angels in this game is Andrew Heaney, who has been filling in for veteran starter Jered Weaver. Over 57 IP so far this season, Heaney has put up a 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 40/9 K/BB rate, and a .236 BAA. However, much like Mike Montgomery’s excellent start of games in Seattle, there are hints that Heaney has been the recipient of his fair share of luck to put up that low of an ERA. One of the stats that indicate that luck is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which shows a ‘truer’ ERA of 3.48. Another is left-on-base percentage, where Heaney is posting an unsustainable 83.6%. Then there are statistics that show the home run could start to become a problem, like his 21.8% Line Drive rate, 42% Pull rate, and 36.2% Hard Hit rate. Last year in limited action while with Miami, Heaney gave up 6 bombs in just 29.1 IP.

Last summer, tonights Chicago White Sox starter, Carlos Rodon, was starting for North Carolina State. The third overall draft pick last year, Rodon has more innings in the major leagues now than in the minors. Very few people have made their debuts and pitched at least this many innings at Rodon’s age of 22; the last to do it was Michael Pineda and Julio Teheran. Rodon almost exclusively relies on this plus-slider to get batters out, and his shaky command of his fastball to compliment that pitch has led him to trouble at times. That’s why even though he has 101 K’s in 91.2 IP, Rodon is posting a 4.61 ERA, 1.60 WIP, .275 BAA, and 101/51 K/BB rate. Rodon was excellent in his last start out against the Angels, where he racked up 11K’s while giving up only 4 hits in seven innings of shut out ball. More importantly, he only walked one Angel batter in his start.

 

Baseball Betting Verdict
With the first matchup of these two pitchers going into extra innings, I don’t like the prospects of picking a side in this game, especially with the recent form of the ‘superior’ team in the Angels. Instead, I’m focusing my MLB pick on the O/U total for guidance. After inspecting the Angels offensive output from July on, they don’t go into extended slumps for very long before exploding for 5 runs or more. If they didn’t put on an offensive show tonight it would break a streak they have going by scoring 5+ runs every 4 games or less. We also have the prospect of Heaney regressing back to where his talent level is when the White Sox get a second look at him within a week. I expect both offenses to make adjustments to these young starters in this game, and am looking for one of them to get knocked out early. That’s why I am taking the over of 7.5 runs for my Monday MLB Pick.

MLB Picks: Over 7.5 @ 5Dimes

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