Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Friday.
Two rookie starters have the potential to limit the scoring Friday night when southpaw Tyler Matzek and the Colorado Rockies (45-69, 17-39 away) pay a visit to right-hander Chase Anderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks (49-66, 23-38 home) in the first game of a three-game weekend series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.
Two Worst Records in the National League
This series is a matchup of the teams with the two worst records in the National League. The Rockies have been the worst MLB picks in the league at 45-69, and much of that has to do with their inability to win at sea level as they are a dismal 17-39 away from the altitude of Coors Field. They enter this contest having gone a ludicrous 17-45 in their last 62 games overall.
The Rockies may be bringing up the rear in the National League West, but the Diamondbacks are only 3½ games ahead of them in fourth place with the second worst record in the NL, but Arizona has totally different home vs. away splits. You see, the Snakes are actually a half-decent 26-28 on the road but they own the worst home record in the Major Leagues at just 23-38 in Phoenix and they even lost two out of three in their only home series vs. Colorado this season.
Anderson a Bright Spot in a Dismal Year
In what has been a dreadful season for Arizona, Anderson has been a ray of sunshine. The rookie comes off of another nice outing vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates where he allowed one run on five hits in six innings. That marked the fourth consecutive start that Anderson allowed two runs or less as he has 1.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over those outings with 24 strikeouts in 25 innings vs. eight walks.
That leaves Anderson at 6-4 for the season while pitching for a team that is 17 games under .500 with a nice 3.19 ERA overall with 63 strikeouts vs. 25 walks, with Arizona as a team going 8-5 in the games that he has started.
He also pitched well vs. the Rockies in Colorado in his first and only career start against them on June 3rd allowing just one run and four hits in six innings, and he now gets to face a Rockies’ offense which understandably has the biggest home vs. away disparity in the majors and that is batting just .229 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging only 3.22 runs per game against them away from Denver.
When He is Good…
Matzek was selected in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft as the 11th pick and he is a 6-foot-3 southpaw that throws his fastball in the mid-90s, meaning that he probably has a long career ahead of him barring injury or blatant ineffectiveness. He is certainly having an uneven rookie season as he is just 2-6 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 starts covering 59.1 innings after getting lit up for eight runs on 10 hits in four innings by the Detroit Tigers Saturday.
However, when Matzek has been good he has been really good, and he has actually allowed three runs or less in six of his 10 starts. In fact, Matzek has a 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his six quality starts with a good ratio of 27 strikeouts vs. eight walks, so the “good” Matzek certainly gives Colorado a chance at the road upset tonight.
So will the good Matzek show up for this game? Well, this will be his first appearance ever vs. the Diamondbacks, which should work to his advantage, and he is facing an Arizona lineup batting a mere .216 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games while averaging 3.51 runs against them during that time.
Rockies Going ‘under’ on Road
Now you would expect Colorado totals to be a bit inflated when they are on the road, and that has been the case as of late with the ‘under’ going 8-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 12 road games, with the Rocks exceeding three runs just twice in those 12 contests.
Look for that ‘under’ pattern to continue for at least one more game as the rookie starters can be expected to perform well in Phoenix on Friday.
MLB Pick: Rockies, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 8½ (-120)