In the American League, Julio Rodriguez and Jeremy Pena are co-favorites to win the Rookie of the Year Award, and Seiya Suzuki is the National League front-runner. We examine the MLB Rookie of the Year futures markets to determine which players are offering value.
Julio Rodriguez appears on the verge of taking control of the AL Rookie of the Year race after getting off to a slow start. Seiya Suzuki is in complete control in the NL, but is there a longshot opportunity available?
When placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: Will this player actually win the market? And are his odds only going to become shorter going forward relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of those questions, then you should think strongly about purchasing that player.
Let’s analyze the AL and NL Rookie of the Year futures markets in search of value.
MLB Rookie of the Year Odds: AL
SEE ALSO: World Series Odds and Picks
AL Rookie of the Year Best Bets
- Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners (+500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros (+500 via FanDuel)
AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners (+500 via FanDuel)
Rodriguez was trading at +500 to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award on Opening Day, and he's still available at that price after a challenging start to the season. Don't hesitate if he's not already in your pocket, as his bat is heating up, and he is now hitting third in the Mariners' lineup.
Take advantage of the +500 before it disappears. PointsBet has already reduced his odds to +350.
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros (+500 via FanDuel)
This market will come down to either Pena or Rodriguez. You may want to purchase both with each player available at +500. Pena was in the +1500 range on Opening Day, and he's now as short as +375 through Caesars.
The shortstop has done more than just replace Carlos Correa in Houston, as Pena is outperforming him.
Bobby Witt Jr., 3B, Kansas City Royals (+600 via Caesars)
Witt opened as the +300 favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and his odds have since doubled to +600. While Witt is still flashing the leather at third base, his production at the plate has been well below average.
Let his price continue to fall before investing in Witt.
SEE ALSO: MLB Cy Young Picks
AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Contenders
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers (+1000 via Caesars)
Torkelson's price has risen from +700 to +1000, and it should be much higher. Torkelson owns a negative fWAR, and the Tigers could send him down. He's simply not in the running for the award despite possessing tremendous power. His price will rise dramatically soon.
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians (+1200 via FanDuel)
Kwan's odds shortened all the way down to +650 after a hot start to the season, and we highlighted him as a hard fade. That view hasn't changed, even though his price has almost doubled to +1200. He won't post the production to compete with a Rodriguez or Pena.
Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (+2000 via Caesars)
Rutschman's odds have continued to increase since opening at +550. He wasn't able to make the Orioles out of spring training due to a triceps injury. His price will continue to climb as long as he's in the minors. The rise won't stop until the Orioles indicate when he might join the club.
SEE ALSO: American League Player Awards
AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Longshots
George Kirby, SP, Seattle Mariners (+3000 via Caesars)
Kirby's price will decrease as he continues to make more starts, as his electric stuff will keep drawing attention. However, he won't prevail over Pena and Rodriguez.
Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels (+4000 via Caesars)
Posting a no-hitter on your resume makes a rookie appealing. But Detmers won't be competitive in this market because of his low K/9 and average xFIP. Don't overreact to his brilliant performance.
SEE ALSO: MLB MVP Odds and Picks
MLB Rookie of the Year Odds: NL
NL Rookie of the Year Best Bets
- Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (+10000 via FanDuel)
NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs (-130 via PointsBet)
A hot start with the bat has helped Suzuki become the favorite for the NL ROY Award, and the biggest liability for sportsbooks. You'll want Suzuki to be part of your portfolio, but not at the +130 price point. Wait to see if a better price can be found deeper into the season.
Mackenzie Gore, SP, San Diego Padres (+450 via FanDuel)
Hold on to that ticket if you have Gore at around +4000 in your pocket. He's shaping up to be one of the few players capable of putting pressure on Suzuki. But you can't hop on his current price after it sunk as low as +450.
The Padres' rotation is loaded with star power, and we don’t know if there will even be a spot in the group for Gore throughout the campaign. Blake Snell is close to returning from injury.
NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Contenders
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (+2500 via FanDuel)
Cruz started the year as the betting favorite with odds of +300. His odds have predictably plummeted since the Pirates sent him to the minors. The shortstop's price was increased from +300 to +700 following the demotion, and he's now trading at as high as +2500 through Caesars.
Max Meyer, SP, Miami Marlins (+3300 via PointsBet)
There must be someone capable of putting pressure on Suzuki in this weak field, and I believe it's Meyer.
His odds are extremely long because he's still playing in Triple-A. But Meyer's odds may shorten fast if he's called up. I bought him at +5000, so add Meyer to your watch list and jump at this price when he's called up.
Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants (+3500 via FanDuel)
Bart initially carried odds of +900 to win the NL ROY, but now that's increased to +3500 at FanDuel. He's not producing offensively, and his odds will keeping increasing until Bart improves.
SEE ALSO: National League Player Awards
NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Longshots
Seth Beer, DH, Arizona Diamondbacks (+5000 via FanDuel)
While Beer has posted a below-average wRC+ and a negative fWAR, he continues to be positioned near the top of oddsboards for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. That clearly demonstrates how weak this field is and why Suzuki is such a strong favorite.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds (+5000 via PointsBet)
I was enthusiastic about Greene during the beginning of the season, but his stats don't support him being named the NL Rookie of the Year. Even with a 100-mph fastball and high K/9 rate, nobody can take the honor with a negative fWAR.
Greene's odds have increased from +800 to +5000, and it wouldn't be surprising if the Reds sent him to the minors soon.
C.J. Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres (+5000 via FanDuel)
Abrams' odds have been on a roller-coaster ride. He was bet down to +1000 following Fernando Tatis Jr.'s injury after opening at +5000. His lack of production has led to Adrams' odds increasing all the way back to the original +5000 price point.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Diamondbacks (+10000 via FanDuel)
Perdomo has posted the same fWAR as Suzuki while playing in more games, which is shocking. That's primarily due to what Perdomo is doing defensively, as his hitting has been below average.
A flier on Perdomo at the price of +10000 may be worth taking if he starts to produce even the slightest with his bat.
Where to Bet on MLB Rookie of the Year Odds
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