Rocky Mountain High Total & ML Picks Worth Betting as Giants & Rockies Collide

Darin Zank

Thursday, September 3, 2015 1:21 PM GMT

Time is running out on the defending champion Giants, who take a 5-game losing streak into their at Coors Field. Yet, they're still favored on today's betting line. Where's the money to be made?

Giants-Rockies Thursday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on San Francisco with Ryan Vogelsong was the -123 at Heritage, while Colorado and lefty Chris Rusin were getting +115 at Bovada. And every book on our MLB odds board listed a total on tonight's game of 11.5 runs, which ties for the highest we've seen in MLB this season.

 

The Situation
San Francisco just got swept three games by rival Los Angeles, losing Wednesday 2-1, striking out 15 times against Clay Kershaw. So the Giants carry a five-game losing streak into this series.

At 69-64 San Francisco trails the first-place Dodgers by 6.5 games in the NL West, and sits 6.5 games back of the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Colorado, meanwhile, just split four games at home with Arizona, winning WednesFday 9-4. Still, the Rockies are now 12-25 since trading SS Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto.

At 54-78 Colorado is just playing out the string on another forgettable season.

The Rockies lead this season series seven games to five, with the OVERS going 6-4-2.

 

Thursday's Mound Match-Up
Rusin (4-7, 4.94), by our strict standards, is eight-for-16 on quality starts this season, and a bit erratic as of late. Three starts ago he tossed a complete-game, five-hit shutout against San Diego; he then got bombed by the Mets for 11 runs in two-plus innings; but last time out he held Pittsburgh to three runs through six innings, with all three runs coming on one swing of the bat. For the season Rusin has allowed 130 hits through 98 innings, which is pretty poor, walked 28 and struck out 68.

Colorado is 5-11 in Rusin's starts, with the OVERS going 8-7.

In his one previous start against San Francisco this season, back in June, Rusin gave up five runs – two earned – and 10 hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 7-5 Rockies defeat.

Vogelsong (9-10, 4.19) is eight-for-21 on quality starts, and 0 for his last two. Last Saturday he gave up four runs in less than five innings against St. Louis, and just before that he gave up three runs in less than four innings against Pittsburgh. He's also walked seven batters over his last two starts. On the season the 38-year-old has allowed 122 hits through 125 innings, walked 56 and struck out 99.

The Giants are 11-10 in Vogey's starts, with the UNDERS going 11-8.

In his one start this season against Colorado, back in May, Vogelsong tossed six innings of shutout ball, allowing just two hits, striking out five, in a game San Francisco eventually won 11-8.

 

Thursday's Batting Splits
The Giants rank ninth in the Bigs this season against left-handed pitching with a .326 team on-base percentage, but 21st in team slugging at .380.

Colorado, on the other hand, ranks ninth against right-handed pitching with a .322 team OBP and No. 1 with a healthy .460 slugging percentage. However, some of that second figure probably has to do with the home ballpark the Rockies play in, where doubles and triples abound in that huge outfield.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 36-29 in games played at Coors Field this season, which are averaging 11.4 runs per, easily the most among all ML ballparks.

 

Injury Update
San Francisco is missing a key cog, with OF Hunter Pence on the DL for the third time this season. The Giants are 11 games under .500 this year without Pence. And IF Brandon Crawford (19 HR) has missed recent action with a pulled calf, and is questionable for at least Thursday.

 

Giants-Rockies Free Picks
We'll give Vogelsong a short edge in the pitching match-up, and San Francisco owns a significant advantage in the comparison of the bullpens. So while we don't usually take teams “riding” five-game losing streaks we'll go with the Giants tonight as our MLB pick on the ML. Also, both teams might be missing a good stick or two, so we'll take a chance with the 'UNDER' on that high total.

 

Picks: San Francisco and UNDER 11.5 runs (-110) at 5Dimes

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