Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.
The worst road team in the Major Leagues has a legitimate chance to make it two road wins in as many nights Wednesday when southpaw Yohan Flande and the Colorado Rockies (66-92, 21-56 away) pay a visit to right-hander Joe Wieland and the San Diego Padres (75-82, 47-33 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 9:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +117.
Padres Now Assures Losing Year
The Padres had surprisingly swept three games from the San Francisco Giants this past weekend and then made it four straight wins 1-0 in the series opener here on Monday before the Rockies won 3-2 last night. That marked the 82nd loss of the season for the Padres, ensuring them of another losing year despite being in third place in the National League West. That standing is by default though in a division with the teams with the league’s two worst records.
And it was these Rockies that were the worst MLB picks in the National League until recently, but they then won the last six games of their home stand before visiting San Diego including a four-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, thus putting Arizona in that dubious position right now at 63-95 and three games behind the Rockies. Winning on the road last night was a bit of an oddity though for a Colorado team that still has the worst road mark in the majors at 21-56.
Pitched Well vs. San Diego
And yet we like the Rockies to make it two road wins in a row, and with a winless pitcher starting on the mound no less! We totally get that Flande is 0-5 with a 4.91 ERA, but that ERA understandably sinks to 2.86 away from the altitude of Coors Field and he does have a good 1.20 WHIP overall and a great 0.95 WHIP on the road, albeit in only 22 road innings.
And his only career start vs. the Padres was a good one despite tasting defeat here in San Diego on August 12th, when he allowed only two runs and just four hits in six innings but took the 4-1 loss. Flande has made just three road starts this year but that start was one of two Quality Starts in those outings and he is one out shy of being a perfect three-for-three in Quality Starts away from home as he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings in the other effort.
Does Not Look Ready Yet
Wieland showed some promise as a rookie for the Padres in 2012, but he then missed over two years, or 28 months to be exact, due to undergoing two surgeries on his right throwing elbow. He did look good in rehab before making his return to the Major Leagues on September 6th, but apparently he was not up for pitching in a live game just quite yet as he was touched up for four earned runs on seven hits plus two walks while lasting only 2.1 innings.
Granted Wieland should get better with more work, but he is not there yet and the Padres giving him over two weeks off before this second start could be a red flag that he did not come out is his initial outing in great shape. And we certainly do not trust Wieland as a favorite of any price at the current time, not even vs. the worst road team in the league.
Not Built for Petco Park
Besides, it is not as if the Padres can be counted on to give him much run support, as the vast dimensions of Petco do not suit the San Diego hitters. To wit, the Padres are batting just .226 overall and averaging only 3.29 runs per game in their own ballpark this season.
With all of this in mind, take Colorado to repeat last night’s performance and win on the road in San Diego again on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Rockies +117