Rockies vs. Marlins MLB Picks: Series Opener Offers Betting Value on Colorado and the 'Over'

Darin Zank

Thursday, June 11, 2015 6:40 PM GMT

In a repeat of a game of just five days ago the Rockies and Marlins open a four-game series in Miami Thursday night. Colorado and Chris Rusin won that game last Saturday; which way are we going with our free MLB pick on today's game?

Rockies-Marlins Thursday Betting Odds
As of mid-Thursday morning the best line we could find we could find on Miami and David Phelps was the -130 offered at WagerWeb, while BetOnline was offering +122 on Colorado and lefty Chris Rusin. And most sportsbooks were listing the total on tonight's game at 8.5 runs.

 

The Situation
Colorado just took two of three games from St. Louis, missing the sweep by losing Wednesday 4-2. Just before that the Rockies lost two of three to Miami, and just before that they split four games with the Dodgers. So Colorado is 1-1-1 over its last three series, 5-5 over its last 10 games.

At 27-31 the Rockies are 4-5 games off the pace in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Miami, meanwhile, just got swept three games at Toronto, losing Wednesday 7-2. Just before that, though, the Marlins took two of three from the Rockies; just before that they took two of three from the Cubs; and just before that they took two of three from the Mets. So Miami is 3-1 in its last four series, 6-6 over its last 12 games.

At 24-36 Miami, which began this season with high hopes, is 8.5 games back of that second wild-card slot.

This is the second meeting this season between these teams; last weekend the Marlins took two of three games from the Rockies in Coors Field. Two of those games played UNDER the totals.

Must Read: MLB Picks of the Day Feature Top Two Money Lines for Thursday's Betting Ticket 

Thursday's Starting Pitchers
Thursday's pitching matchup is a repeat of a game played last Saturday, a 10-5 Colorado victory.

Phelps (2-3, 4.68) is six-for-10 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last four. Last Saturday he got bombed for nine runs in less than four innings by this Colorado lineup, and over his last four starts he's allowed 19 earned runs through 20 2/3 innings. Miami is only 3-7 in Phelps' starts this season.

Phelps' only previous career start against the Rockies came two years ago, when he was with the Yankees.

Rusin (2-0, 1.45) is two-for-two on quality starts since joining the Rockies rotation. Sixteen days ago he held Cincinnati to one run through seven innings; then he picked up a victory with 4 2/3 scoreless innings of relief against Philadelphia; and last Saturday he held these Marlins to two runs through seven innings. So on the season he's allowed just three ER through 18 2/3 innings.

Down at Triple-A Albuquerque this spring, however, Rusin went 3-2 with a 6.29 ERA.

That victory last Saturday was Rusin's only career start against Miami.

 

Thursday's Batting Splits
Colorado ranks sixth in the Majors this season with a .324 team OBP against right-handed pitching.

Miami ranks 10th against lefties with a .326 team OBP.

 

Rockies-Marlins Free Picks
This same pitching matchup just resulted in a 10-5 Colorado victory five days ago, and while history doesn't always immediately repeat itself, we still believe the value on today's line resides with the Rockies. Also, these two bullpens rank near the bottom in all of baseball, so we're thinking OVER with our MLB picks

MLB Pick: Colorado +120 at BetOnline and OVER