The Over looks like a viable MLB pick for Wednesday’s NL West matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday 28th April 2021 (9:45 p.m. ET) at Oracle Park
Perhaps you’ve heard this phrase once or twice: The early bird gets the worm. The best time to hit up your preferred online sportsbooks and make your MLB picks is the moment the first lines hit the board. Then you have a short window to get your bets in before the odds start moving. Consider Wednesday’s matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants; BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) opened the Giants as –137 home faves, but priced them down to –128 less than 15 minutes later. You snooze, you lose.
Then again, we wouldn’t have actually recommended the Rockies when they opened at +127 on the MLB odds board. Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s crew project San Francisco to win this National League West battle 56 percent of the time; pump that implied percentage through the life-affirming SBR Odds Converter, and you get a fair moneyline of –127 out the other side. Dude, where’s our profit margin? Not on either side of this equation, even after the early line movement. But maybe there’s something with that 7.5-run total. Let’s investigate.
Since we’re talking about bet timing, I should emphasize that with other sports that run on a daily basis – basketball in particular – it’s often a good idea to wait a while before you hit up your preferred online sportsbooks, so you can verify which key players will be in uniform. Making MLB picks is different; the most important players are the projected starting pitchers, and they almost never end up playing the previous game. You also don’t have to worry so much about a position player getting injured, or being given a rest day. They don’t move the baseball lines the way the men on the mound do.
With that in mind, let’s look at the two gentlemen featured in Wednesday’s contest, as per the MLB website (always consult them first), and see if there’s anything in their profiles that makes us want to hammer that total. For the Giants, it’ll be lefty Alex Wood (2.59 FIP in two starts), a former All-Star who may have regained his form after struggling last year in his second tour of duty with the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the Rockies, it’ll be northpaw German Marquez (4.17 FIP in five starts), a sixth-year veteran and a steady presence in Colorado’s rotation. No wonder we’re looking at a small total for Wednesday’s matchup.
Ah, but if we dig deep, and peel back the layers, maybe we’ll discover the real story behind their success. Marquez has enjoyed some good luck in his five starts, posting a career-low .289 BABIP (as per FanGraphs) and a career-high 81.5 percent of runners left stranded. His 3.45 ERA is also a fair bit smaller than his FIP. As for Wood, he’s only made those two starts, and his peripheral stats are even more foreboding: a tiny .111 BABIP and a perfect 100 percent of runners left on base, leading to a microscopic 0.75 ERA. Let’s roll with a small bet on the Over and see if the regression monsters come to feast Wednesday night.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.