Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Picks: LA Will Win, but Focus on Run Total to Avoid Steep Vig

David Lawrence

Sunday, May 17, 2015 9:56 AM UTC

Sunday, May. 17, 2015 9:56 AM UTC

The Colorado Rockies are off to a terrible start this season compared to the Dodgers. Logic says LA will cash on the MLB betting lines on Sunday but is that the best place for our MLB picks?

The Colorado Rockies Can Win Because…
If you look at Los Angeles starter Mike Bolsinger, you will see an inexperienced pitcher who could fall off the ledge at any time – especially as he accumulates more starts and becomes more of a known quantity in the big leagues. Bolsinger has made only 12 career major league appearances and only 11 career starts. He has made only two starts this season. That’s such a thin body of experience that it’s a sample size too small to reasonably extrapolate from. Bolsinger has gotten by in his first two big league starts in 2015, but the Rockies could very easily make adjustments against him and look at the scouting report they’ve gleaned from Bolsinger’s two games over the past few weeks. The other thing to point out about Bolsinger is that he’s made two spot starts – one on April 23 and the other on May 12. This will be the first major league start for Bolsinger in 2015 when coming off a start with normal rest. He had plenty of time to regroup for his May 12 start, but being a more regular part of the Dodgers’ rotation could cause problems for him. He didn’t complete the sixth inning in either one of his previous two starts, so his pitching arm might be tested in this game. Colorado, as bad as it’s been to this point in the season, could very realistically break through today as the underdog in MLB betting odds.

The other thing the Rockies are counting on in this game is that starting pitcher Kyle Kendrick pitched really well in his last game. Kendrick has struggled this season, but not on May 12 against the Los Angeles Angels. Kendrick went seven innings, giving up only two runs without a walk. If this version of Kendrick shows up against the Dodgers, Colorado should be in good shape.


The Los Angeles Dodgers Can Win Because…
Their young starter has been effective, while Colorado’s starter has not pitched well in most cases this year. Bolsinger, though he is inexperienced, was consistent in his two starts in 2015. He went 5 2/3 innings in both of those starts. He gave up five hits and only one run in each of those starts. He gave up two walks in those starts. These were basically carbon-copy starts. If Bolsinger gives Los Angeles 5 2/3 more innings with only one run allowed, that should be enough for the Dodgers to win.

Why is this so? Colorado starter Kyle Kendrick has a 7.65 ERA. He did pitch really well in his last start, but in his previous five starts (earliest to more recent, in order), he gave up eight runs, six runs, four runs, eight runs, and six runs. One of those bad starts was against the Dodgers. Los Angeles touched him up for six runs in 4 2/3 innings. The pitching matchup works in the Dodgers’ favor.


Baseball Betting Outlook
The Dodgers probably win this game but over figures to be a good play since the juice is so high. The Dodgers should provide a bunch of runs here and if we get two or three from Colorado, we should go over the number. Take over with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Over Run Total  at GT Bets

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