Rockies are the MLB Pick at a Monster Price vs. Dodgers

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 16, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Saturday, May. 16, 2015 2:47 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Saturday.

 



Things may not be as they seem with the monstrous underdogs having a better chance than the odds imply Saturday night when southpaw Jorge De La Rosa and those Colorado Rockies (12-20, 8-11 away) pay a visit to right-hander Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers (23-12, 16-4 home) in the third game of a four-game weekend series from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 9:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a humongous underdog for this contest at current odds of +222.


First vs. Worst
This line is understandable when you consider that besides the vast discrepancy in the stats of these starting pitchers, the Dodgers are considered by some to be the best all-around team in baseball while leading the National League West by five games over the second place San Diego Padres with a 23-12 record. The Dodgers have also taken care of business here in Los Angeles so far with a 16-4 home mark.

Conversely, the Rockies are last in the division with a 12-20 record, putting them 9½ games behind the Dodgers at this early stage, and they entered this series as losing MLB picks in 10 straight games before ending that streak with a 5-4 win here in the opener on Thursday thanks to the Dodgers’ Yimi Garcia blowing a save by allowing three runs in the ninth inning.


Greinke Not Himself Despite Record?
Greinke is certainly having a great year on the surface as he is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a .185 batting average allowed, with Los Angeles as a team going 6-0 in his last six starts. And by rights he should be 6-0 as he took a no-decision last time out after allowing one run on six hits in seven innings vs. the Miami Marlins when Garcia again blew a save for him in a game the Dodgers ultimately won 5-3.

However, the news is not entirely rosy for Greinke despite those stats and the undefeated record. He generally averages more that a strikeout per inning and he did so again last year for the Dodgers, while walking less then two batters per nine innings. This year however, his strikeout rate is down to 7.42 per nine innings and his walks are slightly up at 2.09.

Thus, Greinke has pitched to a bit more contact this year, but he has lucked out by yielding an abnormally low .220 BABIP. Furthering his luck has been getting away with a high 87.6 percent strand rate, and while Greinke remains one of the best starters in the game and possibly the best number-two starter in all of baseball, he should still regress a bit when those factors stabilize.


Unlucky Colorado Ace
Meanwhile, De La Rosa is considered the Colorado ace and the Rockies locked him up to a big contract this off-season. However he has hardly resembled an ace thus far going 0-2 in four starts with a bloated 9.56 ERA, 2.19 WHIP and a .329 average allowed with the Rocks going 0-4 as a team in his starts. That includes allowing five earned runs in four innings vs. these Dodgers last time out in Denver while surrendering five hits and walking six.

But again, numbers can be deceiving and this time in the opposite manner of Greinke. You see, while De La Rosa has only worked 16 innings, he has 23 strikeouts for a terrific rate of 12.94 per nine, but he has been as unlucky as Greinke has been lucky allowing an ungodly .468 BABIP with the opposition having an extremely abnormal 47.6 percent strand rate.

De La Rosa went 14-11 while pitching for one of the worst teams in the National League last season and he could return to that form once his sabre numbers normalize.


Dodgers Prone to Letdowns
Finally, when the Rockies snapped their 10-game losing streak in the series opener, it was not the first time that the Dodgers let their guard down vs. a supposedly inferior opponent. In fact, Los Angeles is now 4-10 in its last 14 games vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400!

Add this up and the Rockies seem to offer value at this inflated number, so back Colorado as a huge underdog visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on Saturday.

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MLB Pick: Rockies +222

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