The Over was the right MLB pick the last time Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies faced the L.A. Dodgers. Why stop now?
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 23, 2021 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
I sort of love it when a plan sort of comes together. Last Friday’s game at Coors Field between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers was everything we could have hoped for here at the ranch, with the Dodgers winning 10-4 to eclipse that massive 12 run total on the MLB odds board. There was just one problem: Chi Chi Gonzalez got the start for Colorado instead of Antonio Senzatela, who was placed on the COVID-19 list before the game. Nerts.
We hope you were still able to get some of that sweet, sweet cash from the Over despite the pitching change. If not, maybe this Friday’s rematch at Chavez Ravine will give us another chance. Gonzalez (5.24 FIP) is due up again for the Rockies; you may remember him from that recent The New York Times article about spin rates, where he checks in at No. 10 among the Top 10 pitchers affected by the crackdown on stickum. Journalism!
Unfortunately, there’s a bit of a problem for Friday’s MLB picks: The Dodgers haven’t officially named their starting pitcher yet as we go to press. It’s widely assumed that David Price (3.48 FIP) will get the nod, but only a small handful of online sportsbooks have posted their lines, and they’re all overseas. They’ve got L.A. pegged at around –335, so we’ll use that for our preview, but you’ll definitely want to check out the MLB lines from our trusted books if they’re not already on the board when you read this.
So... Dodgers –335? That’s a lot of chalk. Too much chalk, according to the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight; they project Los Angeles to win 75 percent of the time, and you don’t even need the gorgeous SBR Odds Converter to tell you that’s the equivalent of –300 on a vig-free moneyline. Nor do you want to take Colorado at +260 or thereabouts.
That 9.5-run total, though. They won’t be playing at altitude this time, but it should be a warm July evening at Dodger Stadium, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s, and with relatively low barometric pressure for the West Coast. It’ll be a bit humid, which won’t help us, and we could use some more wind, but everything else looks good for the Over weather-wise.
Which brings us back to Gonzalez. He is... not good. The data is a little cloudy because of the occasional use of openers, but the Rockies are 4-10 behind Gonzalez for minus-3.93 units, with the Over at 9-4-1. That drops to 5-4 away from Coors Field, but if you narrow that down even further to the start of June, when the impending crackdown was first announced and spin rates began to fall, Gonzalez has the Over at 2-1 in away games and 6-2 overall. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.