Read our betting preview for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves. The juice is a bit high on 'under' MLB picks right now and I'm expecting us to have two quality starts in Atlanta.
The total for this game came out at 7.5 at about -120, and at a couple places the line has already dropped to 7. For my play I'm going to take under the 7.5 at 5Dimes at -120, those are the best odds out there at this number right now. I think both offenses struggle today against these two underrated pitchers.
Robbie Ray comes into this contest with a 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 71 strikeouts, and an unfortunate 3-7 record. He is having a solid year and is well below his career numbers of 4.49 ERA and 1.36 whip. In his last 10 starts, for the most part, he has been pretty solid allowing at most four runs in any particular game in which he did three times. The angle for him are his numbers on the road, and although he had kind of a rough outing in his last road start in Houston allowing four earned in just five innings, on the year he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP pitching away from Arizona.
The Diamondbacks rank third in runs scored per game at 4.55, sixth in OPS at .738, and fifth in team batting average hitting .267. Recently they have struggled a little bit though, and on the road all their offensive statistics go down. Still, overall they are arguably one of the top five offenses in all of major league baseball and I'm not taking anything away from them in that regards. They did just have an off day yesterday as well, the first one in weeks, so this might bring them to the park either extra focused or a little lethargic, my money is on the latter. The last time they played a road game off of a day off they scored four runs against the Rangers in Texas, oddly enough Ray started that game as well.
Julio Teheran takes the mound for the Braves with a 4.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 116 strikeouts, and a 7-6 record. The opposite of Ray he is having a down year considering his career ERA of 3.50 and 1.19 whip. He is been really hot and cold this season sometimes looking stellar like throwing a one-hitter against the Mets, and other times getting lit up, like giving up five earned runs in just four innings in Baltimore. His home numbers are what we are backing today and he comes in with a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP pitching in Atlanta. Although Arizona is a dangerous hitting team Teheran has the type of stuff to keep them down in the run column.
Atlanta ranks 25th in runs scored per game at 3.75, 28th in OPS at .675, and 17th in team batting average hitting .253. At home most of their offensive stats go up, but recently like the Diamondbacks, they haven't been scoring a lot of runs and are hitting under .200 their last three games.
Although this is not one of the more exciting matchups on the board I like the numbers in this contest. At 7.5 that might be a difficult total for these teams to go over with the home and away angles supporting both of these pitchers. If recent performance is any indicator both these teams also might struggle just a little bit at the plate. Don't look for a shut out, but look for a low-scoring tight game, back the under for your MLB picks.
MLB Picks: Under 7.5