Road/Home Dichotomy Suggests 'Over' in Nationals vs. Braves

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 11:55 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2015 11:55 AM UTC

For my total MLB  pick we head to Atlanta where Washington Nationals visit the Atlanta Braves.  Although we have two pretty solid pitchers on the mound I'm going to be backing over the total in this matchup.

I was a bit surprised when I saw the total of this game, and it is a half point different with different juice amounts at different books. MLB odds makers have come out with a total from 6.5 to 7 on this game. You can get some good plus money on the number 7 and that is where I will be making my play of the over the total. The best odds I have seen now on the over for this game go from +100 to +105 at different sportsbooks such as Heritage, Bookmaker, Just Bet, and Wagerweb. 


For the Nationals Jordan Zimmermann takes the mound with a 3.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. I think there are couple things against him in this game though because he just pitched against the Braves in his last outing (this will be his third time against them this season) and his away ERA is a bit high. On the road he has a 5.40 ERA and looking at some of his outings this year he has been on at times, but off on others. I think throwing two good games against an ok hitting team like the Braves is a tall order. For the Braves Shelby Miller takes the hill with 1.94 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  He started out the year completely on fire but has cooled off just a touch in his last five games, not much just a touch. Going against him, like Zimmermann, is the fact he just faced Washington in his last outing. This will be the first time this year he has faced a good as hitting team as the Nationals for the second time.


At the Plate
The Nationals are one of the better hitting teams in the major leagues and rank in the top 10 in most offensive categories. The Atlanta Braves are more of a middle tiered ranked team.  Washington ranks eighth in the league in runs scored per game, but they ranked third in runs scored per game on the road. The Braves ranked 18th in the league in runs scored per game, but climb to 15th at home. The same theme goes for these two teams in on base plus slugging percentage where Washington ranks as 10th in the league, but second on road games. The Braves ranked 22nd in this category but rank 20th at home, not a big difference but still.

With both these pitchers facing the last team they faced in consecutive games, and pitching very well, I look for both the teams to have more success against them today. Some interesting trends also have me liking Washington to do well today with their strong away numbers offensively, and the Braves seem to always hit better at home,  back the over with confidence with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Over at Wagerweb

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