Ride the Streaking Rays +131 vs. Stumbling Orioles with Wednesday's MLB Picks

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 2, 2015 12:20 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 2, 2015 12:20 PM UTC

Tampa owns a 3-game winning streak, Baltimore a 6-game losing streak. So the "streak" theory may come into play when the Rays shoot for a sweep of the O's tonight. 

Rays-Orioles Wednesday Odds
As of early Wednesday morning the best price we could find on Baltimore and Kevin Gausman was the -136 offered at BetOnline, while Tampa and Erasmo Ramirez were getting +131 at GT Bets. Also, most of today's MLB odds market was posting a total of 8 runs on this game, with a few 8.5's out there, too.


The Situation
Tampa has taken the first two games of this series, including an 11-2 decision Tuesday night. So the Rays have won three games in a row, while Baltimore has lost six in a row and 12 of its last 13.

At 66-66 Tampa trails Texas by 3.5 games in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot, while at 63-69 the Orioles now sit 6.5 games off the pace in that same race.

These teams have now split 14 games this season, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by an 8-5-1 margin.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Gausman (2-6, 4.39), by our strict standards, is five-for-11 on quality starts this season. Last Friday he gave up four runs and nine hits through 6 2/3 innings against Texas, while over his last four starts he's allowed 12 runs through 26 2/3 innings. For the season Gausman has allowed 75 hits through 80 innings, walked 18 and struck out 69.

Baltimore is 3-8 in Gausman's starts, while the UNDERS have gone 7-3.

Last year Gausman started four times against Tampa Bay, allowing nine ER through 22 innings; thanks to some poor run support the Orioles lost three of those games, while all four games played UNDER.

Ramirez (10-5, 3.68) is just six-for-21 on quality starts, although that figure is a bit misleading, because he's been on such a short leash. However, he's also 0 for his last three. Last Friday he gave up three runs – two earned – on six hits and three walks in less than five innings against Kansas City, while over his last three starts he's allowed eight earned runs through 17 innings. On the season Ramirez has allowed fewer hits, 109, than innings pitched, 127, walked 37 and struck out 95.

The Rays are 14-7 in Ramirez's starts, with the UNDERS going 11-8.

Ramirez is one-for-two on quality starts against Baltimore this season; back in May he tossed seven shutout innings in a 3-0 Tampa victory, but in July he gave up five runs in 7 1/3 innings of a 5-1 Rays loss.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
Tampa ranks 26th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .303 team on-base percentage, and 28th with a .378 team slugging percentage.

Baltimore ranks 22nd against righties with a .308 team OBP but third with a .428 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are 34-30 on the UNDERS, even though they're averaging a healthy 9.2 runs per.


Injury Update
Baltimore OF Adam Jones (24 HR) is dealing with a sore shoulder, and is questionable for tonight's game.


Rays-O's Wednesday Free Picks
We don't always subscribe to the “streak” theory but in this case it looks like the right side to take with our MLB Picks tonight. And Tampa is getting an underdog price. Also, we can see this game getting to 5-4, so we're thinking OVER.


MLB Picks: Rays & 'OVER' 8 runs (-115) at Pinnacle

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