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Reds vs. Rockies MLB Preview and Best Bet

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Reds vs. Rockies MLB Preview and Best Bet
Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies. Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images/AFP

Thursday’s matchup at Coors Field between the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies was designed for the Over to smash the MLB lines.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies

Thursday, May 13, 2021 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field

The Colorado Rockies are everything that’s wrong with Major League Baseball. Since part-owner Dick Montfort took over from his brother Charlie as chairman and CEO in 2011, the Rockies have made the playoffs just twice – in 2017 and 2018. They looked like they were heading for bigger things then. But no; instead of increasing payroll and building around five-time All-Star Nolan Arenado, the Rockies stood pat, then eventually traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals in February for a skimpy package of prospects. Oh, and they paid St. Louis just north of $50 million for the pleasure of getting fleeced.

While Arenado (.843 OPS) and the Cardinals continue to destroy the National League Central, Colorado (12-24, minus-8.31 units) find themselves in last place in the entire league heading into Thursday’s game against the visiting Cincinnati Reds (17-17, minus-1.42 units). Just about anyone would be a solid MLB pick versus the Rockies, but in this case, we’re leaning more towards the Over here at the ranch. It’s a moral imperative.

Never Mind the Balls

Firstly, if you’re worried about those new baseballs that are designed to keep the ball in the park, you can let it go now: The over/unders at press time are split exactly down the middle at 255-255, with the Over slightly ahead at 44-42 the past seven days. The market has adjusted, as markets do.

Secondly, if you’re looking at the MLB spreads at our top sportsbooks, you’re not going to find much value for Thursday’s contest. Heritage have opened Cincinnati at –127, fairly generous compared to other books, but still not worth pursuing if you believe in the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight. They’ve got the Reds winning 58 percent of the time, which translates to a hold-free –138 according to the delicious SBR Odds calculator. Surely we can do better.

Chy Chy Gonza-Leez

Thursday’s pitching matchup is key. Chi Chi Gonzalez (4.57 FIP) is due up for the Rockies, and he’s got the Over at 3-1-1 in his five starts thus far; Gonzalez needed Tommy John surgery in 2017 and was signed to a minor-league contract in December, but made the 40-man roster anyway. He’ll face a Cincinnati batting order that’s second in the majors with 5.27 runs per game and a .752 OPS. Yowza.

We probably won’t get as much help from Wade Miley (3.35 FIP)
. He’s got the totals at 3-3 this year, and he’s coming off Friday’s no-hitter against Cleveland – although maybe that performance will encourage too much action from Under bettors. Miley’s .162 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and 83.3 percent of runners stranded are unsustainable, too. Okay, maybe he will help us out.

That’s up to the Rockies. They rank eighth overall in scoring at 5.03 runs per game, thanks in part to Coors Field, which is still a hitter’s park despite the humidors they use to store the baseballs; ESPN’s park factors for 2021 have this stadium ranked No. 11 overall for run creation at 1.169, and seventh in home runs at 1.237. Thursday’s weather report calls for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s at game time with just 25 percent humidity and very little wind to speak of. Naturally, we’re looking at a big total of 10.5 runs on the MLB odds board at Bovada, but in this particular situation, we’re willing to throw a couple of dollars thereupon.

MLB Pick: Over 10.5 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review

Over 10.5(-110)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.