Reds vs. Phillies MLB Picks: Hamels' a Perfect 10-0 vs. Cincinnati

David Lawrence

Wednesday, June 3, 2015 2:59 PM GMT

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds are two teams that are floating at or near the bottom of their respective division. Who’ll cash on the MLB betting lines as they meet up on Wednesday night?

The Cincinnati Reds Can Win Because…
Starter Mike Leake has actually been a decent road starter. The Reds home stadium isn’t necessarily pitcher friendly and it clearly has done no favors for Leake. He has a 6.91 ERA at home this season and has allowed opposing hitters to bat .311. He’s given up eight home runs in just 28.2 innings at home compared to just four home runs in 35.0 innings on the road. In terms of his other numbers, Leake has a healthy 2.83 ERA on the road with a 0.97 WHIP.  

It’s quite debatable whether you want to be laying juice with MLB picks on a team as lousy as the Phillies – even with Cole Hamels on the mound. They are 8-15 when the total of 7 or less this season and they’ve lost both times they’ve been a favorite of -125 to -150. Consider the Reds for your picks here.

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The Philadelphia Phillies Can Win Because…
They’ll have their stud on the mound. Clearly, it’s been a fairly rough season for the Philadelphia Phillies. They are dead last in the National League East division standings and their run differential is by far and away the worst number in the majors. However, while they win about 31% of their starts overall, they are 6-5 on the season when Hamels is on the mound. That gives you a very good indication of just how valuable he is to the team. Hamels had a bit of a slow start to the season, giving up 10 earned runs in his first three starts but he’s really settled in since then. He has given up just 14 earned runs in his last 56.1 innings pitched. In May, Hamels had a 2.70 ERA and other than his one blow up against the Marlins where he gave up six earned runs in six innings pitched, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts.

As for Reds starter Mike Leake, Cincinnati doesn’t win too many of his outings. They’ve lost four straight Leake starts as well as seven of the 10 times he’s been on the mound. He’s been terrible this month, giving up a whopping 20 earned runs in his last three outings. He has a lofty 6.75 ERA this month and that’s a problem.

Although Philadelphia is a bad team, they clearly have a huge pitching advantage here and that’s why they are favored by MLB odds.

 

Baseball Betting Outlook
It’s pretty rare that I want to be betting the Phillies but this looks like a good spot. Hamels is hot and he consistently gives his team a chance to win. As for Leake, he has a career 7.41 ERA against the Phillies and his team’s records are 1-5. Hamels is a perfect 10-0 against the Reds and his teams are 13-0 when he’s on the mound against them. Take the Phillies in this one.

MLB Pick: Phillies -137 at The Greek