Reds vs. Brewers MLB Picks - Offenses Wont Show Quality At-Bats

Milwaukee players during a game break maybe

Charles Stark

Friday, September 23, 2016 3:57 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 23, 2016 3:57 PM UTC

As we get closer to the postseason there are games out there that are really meaningless to the teams that are playing. Still, that doesn't mean we can't find any value in some matchups and I think we have that today with the Cincinnati Reds traveling to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.

It seems to me odds makers have the total a bit off in this contest in all of the different sportsbooks, but let's take a look.


Cincinnati Reds
Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for Cincinnati and comes in with a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 whip along with batters hitting just .242 against him on the road. DeSclafani has had a good season for the Reds although he has struggled a little bit in his most recent outings. On the road, he has been really good and except for getting knocked around a bit in San Francisco in late July in his road starts, he has allowed just 19 earned runs in 53 innings of work for a 3.21 ERA. In his one outing versus Milwaukee, he did struggle a bit but still only allowed three earned runs in six innings off of six hits. In his last start he had one of his rougher outings of the year giving up four earned runs in his first inning so this a good game for him to bounce back. Milwaukee's offense has been subpar at best this season hitting just .244 as a team which ranks 27th in the major leagues.


Milwaukee Brewers
Zach Davies takes the mound for Milwaukee and comes in with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 whip but just a 3.67 ERA at home this season. The young 23-year-old has pitched well recently but did get banged up versus this same Cincinnati team at home the last time he faced them in mid-August giving up five earned runs in five innings. However, in his other two starts against the Reds, he was really good and allowed just two total earned runs in those other two outings for a combined 3.57 ERA against Cincinnati. Since the All-Star break at home he has been stellar with his only rough outing being the one versus Cincinnati. However, outside of that start, he has allowed just 12 total earned runs in six starts at home in that timeframe facing good hitting teams like the Cubs twice, Arizona, Colorado, and St. Louis. Like his counterpart today he should be able to hold down a Cincinnati team the ranks in the bottom third of the league in batting average and OPS.


Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
Odds makers have set the total across the board at 8.5 at most places. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back under the total of 8.5 with some pretty good odds. Both of these pitchers have been good this year at times so don't expect the offenses to put together a lot of quality at-bats.


Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage which offers a 50% Cash Bonus
July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 14-13-1

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