Reds' Arroyo Takes on Dodgers Sunday & Here's How to Profit

Mark Lathrop

Friday, June 16, 2017 5:10 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 16, 2017 5:10 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper discusses the remaining starts of Cincinnati Reds starter Bronson Arroyo and how to profit in his return from Tommy John surgery.

2017 MLB Record: 107-93-6 (+5.25 Units, 2.23% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers At Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati pitcher Bronson Arroyo has had a rough return from his Tommy John surgery, and although the baseball world in general accepts that a pitcher can return from it and be productive, it must be passing through our minds now that this may not be the case with him. The 40-year-old has gotten shelled time and time again this year, including in his last game against San Diego, giving up 9 earned runs in 4.2 innings.

The velocity has not returned for Arroyo and with his fastball coming in at 85 mph tops, he also has no room for error. He is also losing velocity as the season goes on and his fastball is down a tick from April, and what Pitchf/x calls a cutter is down from 74 mph to 71. If there is any good news, it is that his changeup velocity has dropped with his fastball, down 4 ticks from 79 mph to 74 in his last start, but it still isn’t fooling anyone. Where soft tossing lefty Jamie Moyer enjoyed hard-hit rates as low as 17% in his prime, Arroyo is running a hard-hit rate of 35.1% in 2017. Paired with a fly ball rate of 48.5%, it is no wonder that Arroyo is running a 19.1% HR/FB rate.

The Reds have pitchers Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan waiting in the wings on the DL, so Arroyo is running out of time to figure things out. At 40 with multiple winning seasons under his belt and millions of dollars in the bank, he has nothing to be ashamed of if he doesn’t figure it out before he gets benched. We can only be ashamed if we don’t profit from his last remaining starts.

Arroyo’s statistical results has steadily gotten worse as the season has continued and his velocity declined. His batting average allowed climbed from .257 in April to .378 in June. His slugging percentage allowed in May was an incredible .722. The line for an average batter against Arroyo on the year, extrapolated to an entire season, would look something like a .305 AVG, 44 HRs, and 108 RBIs.

For an MLB bettor, as sad as this is for Arroyo we must take advantage of this short-lived situation. Fading is one thing on full game lines, but this is akin to doubling down on a 10 against a 6 in blackjack. The peripheral wagers may have more inherent value than the game line. I’m speaking of first 5 inning lines, first 5 inning team total 'overs' for the opponent, and opposing team total 'overs.' Take the opposing pitcher out of the equation when possible.

So, for Sunday as the Dodgers travel to visit the Reds and Arroyo, I will be doing all of the above for my MLB pick. On a first 5 inning line on the Dodgers you may have to lay -.5 runs to get value, and a first 5 inning team total may be 3 or 3.5 runs to get 'over.' Take it, as you won’t have the chance much longer.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' First 5 DodgersBest Line Offered: SportsBetting

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