Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.
Look for a second upset in three games Thursday night in one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports when right-hander Brandon Workman and the Boston Red Sox (61-78, 32-38 away) pay a visit to southpaw Chris Capuano and the New York Yankees (71-66, 34-32 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.
The posted money line at Bet365 has Boston as a decided road underdog for this contest at current odds of +130.
Series Split Thus Far
The Red Sox have gone from World Series Champions last season to last place in the American League East this year, so just about the only incentive they have left while playing out the string is helping knock their bitter rivals, the Yankees, out of playoff contention, and they took a step in that direction by taking the series opener 9-4 on Tuesday. The Yankees then evened up the series last night 5-1 to set up this rubber match.
That Yanks still remain viable MLB picks for a playoff spot, but their chances are dwindling as they still trail the Detroit Tigers by four games for the second and final wild card spot with 25 games remaining, and remember that there are also two other team between them and Detroit in the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays are also alive one-half game behind the Bronx Bombers.
Does Capuano Merit This Price?
In the end, the Yankees may ultimately be done in by injuries to their starting rotation, injuries that prompted New York to acquire Capuano from these Red Sox after he appeared exclusively in relief for Boston this year and promptly insert him into the rotation.
Remember that Capuano was a start his entire career before this season, so the transition has not been a tough one as he has had some nice starts in a Yankee uniform, in fact allowing three earned runs or less on four of his seven New York starts and four earned runs in the other three outings with a very good ratio of 70 strikeouts vs. 23 walks in 74.1 innings.
The question we have however is has Capuano done enough to merit this much favoritism? After all, the good strikeout-to-walk ratio aside, he is still just 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and just a 1.39 WHIP for the Yankees, and that includes one start vs. the Red Sox in Boston where he was reached for four earned runs on eight hits in 6.1 innings. Yes his sabremetric numbers are better than his mainstream numbers, but we still do not think that justifies his price here.
Workman a Bit Better Before Last Start
Now we totally get that Workman has been extremely erratic while going a dismal 1-8 with a 4.93 ERA for Boston, but he had actually been pitching better while allowing three runs or less in three of his previous four starts before getting lit up for seven runs on 10 hits by the Seattle Mariners his last outing.
He has a chance to get back to that prior form here as the Yankees are no longer the “Bronx Bombers” in reality, especially here at home in the new Yankee Stadium where that are averaging just 3.65 runs per game overall this season. Workman also has the support of a hot Boston bullpen that has posted a 2.72 ERA over the last 10 games covering 32 innings.
Still Playing Well on the Road
Also, while the Red Sox recently had a 1-8 home stand, they have continued to play well on the road as the loss last night still leaves them at 8-4 in their last 12 games away from home. Furthermore, they have been stepping up against the better teams on the road as Wednesday’s defeat snapped a 6-0 road streak vs. teams with winning records.
Add this all up and Boston looks like an overlay in its attempt to play spoiler to the playoff chances of the hated Yankees on Thursday.
MLB Pick: Red Sox +130