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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Picks: Can't Trust New York's Offense to Come Alive

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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Picks: Can't Trust New York's Offense to Come Alive
Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP

Two reeling teams clash when the Boston Red Sox open a three-game series with the New York Yankees on Friday. Where’s the value in this game? Here’s a complete preview, including updated SBR odds and picks.

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Friday, June 04, 2021 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Michael King

Nathan Eovaldi (6-2, 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) will make his second straight start against a former team. After throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball against the Marlins on Saturday, recording seven strikeouts with just one walk in a 3-1 win, Eovaldi will try to neutralize the Yankees. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP in nine career games (six starts) against the Yankees. He has 31 strikeouts over 37 2/3 innings in those appearances. The current Yankees roster is 26-for-102 (.368) against Eovaldi. Clint Frazier is 4-for-4 with two doubles, one home run and four RBIs against him and Gio Urshela is 3-for-7 with one double, one home run and two RBIs but DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge are a combined 4-for-28 (.143).

This will be Michael King's (0-2, 2.86 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) second consecutive start after seven relief appearances to begin the season. King gave up four runs (two earned) on three hits with two strikeouts and two walks over 2 1/3 innings in a 6-2 loss against the Tigers last Sunday. King is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA and an 0.75 WHIP in two relief appearances against the Red Sox. He has six strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings in those contests. The current Red Sox roster is 5-for-15 (.357) against King. Rafael Devers is 2-for-3 with one solo home run and Xander Bogaerts is 1-for-3 with one solo home run.

Prediction

This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games while the Yankees have lost five of their last seven and they will also be desperate to get back on track. This is a heated rivalry and both teams will come out looking to make a statement in the series opener. The Red Sox opened as +100 favorites, but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -138 based on our gambling calculator (they suggest they will win this game 42 percent of the time).

The player to watch for the Yankees is Aaron Judge (160 Weighted Runs Created Plus), who leads the team in batting average, home runs, RBIs, On-Base Percentage (OBP) and hits. A Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 100 is the league average. Judge's 160 would be 60 percent above the league average. The Red Sox need Devers and Bogaerts to keep playing at a high level, both have had success against King (it's a small sample size but still) and the Red Sox go as they go.

The projected Red Sox lineup has seven batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent and just three batters with a walk rate above 8.5 percent. New York's projected lineup also has six batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent and just three batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340.

The Yankees aren't exactly lighting up MLB scores as of late and Judge is just 2-for-10 with a double against Eovaldi. The Under is 4-1 in Boston's last five games, 7-3-1 in Boston's last 11 games against a team with a winning record, 9-2 in New York's last 11 home games, 13-3 in New York's last 16 games and 8-2-1 in New York's last 11 games against a team with a winning record.

MLB Pick: Under 10 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Under 10(-118)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.