Red Sox vs. Orioles: Today's Home Underdog Worth Shading Or Fading?

Dylan Bundy

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, August 17, 2016 5:28 PM GMT

That is the PERCEPTION of the public, based on the reputation and past performance of tonight’s starter, David Price. 

Boston Red Sox (Price) (-120) at Baltimore Orioles (Bundy) 
With a 5-3 victory last night over Baltimore, the Red Sox have pulled even with the Orioles at 66-52. They each trail Toronto by a single game for the AL East lead and they are both in contention for a Wild Card, as they lead Detroit and Seattle by 3 games. In tonight’s contest, the Red Sox show up as a road favorite. As you will see in the following analysis, that price point is simply not the REALITY! As a result, we have a Baltimore Oriole team that is a very live, value-laden home underdog with a quality starter of their own.  

A simple comparison of the home/road dichotomy of these two teams is the beginning basis of tonight’s winner. The Red Sox are a respectable 28-25 on the road. But, it is Baltimore with a 39-18 home record, best in the American League and 2nd to only the Chicago Cubs in all of baseball that is a mark which must be more respected. Consider that 24 of 44 remaining Baltimore games are on this home field, while 28 of 44 remaining Boston games are on the road, and you will see why Baltimore has a built-in advantage down the stretch in their division and Wild Card race with tonight’s visiting Red Sox.  

Turning our attention to tonight’s starting pitching, we find that the REALITY is the current form advantage that belongs to Bundy over Price. For the year, Price is 10-8 with a 4.29 ERA. Many of those victories have been because of the ample run support provided by the Bo Sox big bats. Though Price allowed just 3 runs in 8 IP vs. Arizona in his most recent start, he ran through rain drops when he allowed 11 baserunners. Pitching on the road (away from his hitter-friendly home field of Fenway Park) has resulted in a record of 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA in 12 starts. I am far preferring the good work done by Baltimore starter, Bundy, who fills in for projected starter, Tillman, as Baltimore manager, Showalter, has moved his rotation back a day for extra rest. Bundy is clearly a viable alternative, as for the season, he is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA. 

In our PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE DAY, I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Baltimore Orioles tonight. 

 

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +105
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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