After a stunning ninth-inning rally Saturday the Red Sox look to take this series from the Jays Sunday, at a fat underdog price. Read inside this betting preview as we serve our free MLB pick.
Red Sox-Blue Jays Sunday Odds
As of early Sunday AM the best price we could find on Toronto and Mark Buehrle was the -185 at Bookmaker, while Boston and fellow lefty Rich Hill were getting +182 at 5Dimes. The Blue Jays could also be found getting +110 giving the run and a half on the run line at 5Dimes.
These teams have split the first two games of this series, after Boston rallied Saturday from a 4-2 ninth-inning deficit to win 7-6.
At 85-63 Toronto still leads the AL East by 3.5 games over second-place New York, but still trails Kansas City by one game in the race for the No. 1 seed in the upcoming American League playoffs.
At 70-77 Boston will not make the playoffs, but it's as close to the .500 mark as its been in a while.
These division rivals have split 18 meetings so far this season, with the OVERS going 9-7-2.
Buehrle (14-7, 3.66), by our strict standards, is 17-for-28 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last five. Tuesday he held Atlanta to one earned run through five innings, but over his last five starts, two of which lasted less than five innings, he's allowed 16 earned runs through 24 1/3 innings. For the season Buehrle has allowed 190 hits through 179 innings, walked just 28 and struck out 82.
Toronto is 16-12 in Buehrle's starts, with the OVERS going 16-10.
Buehrle, who reportedly recently received a cortisone shot in his throwing shoulder, has started twice this season against Boston, allowing six runs through 10 1/3 innings; the Jays split those two games, while both games played OVER.
Hill will be making his second start of this season, and his second ML start since 2009. Last Sunday, in his season debut, he tossed a beauty, shutting Tampa Bay out for seven innings, allowing just one hit and one walk, striking out 10, in a game the Sox eventually won 2-0 in 13 innings.
This will be Hill's first start against Toronto since 2009, when he was with Baltimore.
Hill started this season pitching for Long Island of the Independent League, and later toiled for Syracuse and Pawtucket at the Triple-A level. Last year he threw a total of 5 1/3 innings in the Majors for the Yankees and Angels.
Sunday's Batting Splits
Boston ranks fifth in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .335 team on-base percentage, and third with a .432 team slugging percentage.
Toronto, meanwhile, leads the Majors against lefties with both a .356 team OBP and a .463 team slugging percentage. Numbers like that point us toward the OVER.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Rogers Centre this season are 43-29 on the UNDERS, even though they're averaging 9.2 runs per, seventh-most among all ML ballparks.
Toronto is without SS Troy Tulowitzki, who's on the DL with a shoulder injury. But the Jays are 5-3 since he went down, averaging 5.9 runs per game.
For Boston, OF Hanley Ramirez is on the DL, and IF Pablo Sandoval is questionable for today with an illness.
Sox-Jays Free Picks
Hill was fantastic in his season debut one week ago, but after a performance like that we can't help but believe he's ripe for a regression his next time out. So we like Toronto today, but not that price, so we'll play the Jays on the run line as our MLB pick. Also, we can see this game getting to 6-4, so we like the OVER.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays on the run line and OVER nine runs (+100) at Pinnacle.