Red Sox Total Runs Per Game Trend To Continue Against Astros

Charles Stark

Thursday, May 12, 2016 12:44 PM GMT

Two all-star pitchers face off today in Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox, but where is the MLB betting value on this American League matchup?

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
MLB odds makers have come out making the total for this game at 8 like at Pinnacle -105.  Although both these pitchers have strong pedigrees there is nothing that makes me believe they won’t get knocked around today so for my MLB pick I will back the over the total.

 

Houston Astros
Dallas Keuchel takes the mound with a 4.70 ERA and 1.52 whip with the Astros batting just .232 as a team which ranks 27th in the major leagues. Keuchel has not been nearly as effective this season as last season but he is coming off a decent seven inning two earned run performance coming into today’s game. Although the Red Sox have struggled a bit against lefties it has not been significant only dropping a touch in batting average and OPS so don’t expect Keuchel to go unscathed. Offensively the Astros have been rough but are experiencing a little bit of an offensive surge going 6-4 in their last 10 games.

Today they get the opportunity to face a struggling David Price who they only faced just once last season but overall they are hitting lefties much better than right handers with almost all of their offensive statistics jumping up, like batting average and OPS. Most notably they lead the American League with a .349 on base percentage against left handers. The Astros bullpen has not been very good this season and if Boston can get Keuchel out early they could do even more damage against Houston’s relievers 4.19 ERA.

 

Boston Red Sox
David Price gets the start for the Red Sox and comes in with a 6.75 ERA and 1.38 whip with Boston leading the major leagues with a .288 batting average. Price has really struggled this season and might be in a good spot for a bounce back game but he has just looked out of sorts.  He has yet to give up less than two runs in any of his starts and has given  up five or more in four of seven times on the mound this season.

Of course he is better than his current numbers but I believe there is good value on siding that the Astros will score at least a few against him today. Offensively Boston has been arguably the best hitting team in baseball and at home they can be flat out scary. The Red Sox rank first in batting average, as mentioned and hits per game, second in runs per game, OPS, and total bases, and third in RBI’s and on base percentage.  They are hot right now too averaging over 10 runs per game in their last three games.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8 -125
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker