Red Sox Pitching Shortcomings Generates Valuable MLB Pick On Yankees

Michael Pineda

Jason Lake

Friday, July 15, 2016 3:05 PM GMT

Friday, Jul. 15, 2016 3:05 PM GMT

The Boston Red Sox haven't made much money this year, but the New York Yankees are doing even worse against the MLB odds. Only one can win this Friday night.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Remember when Major League Baseball used to revolve around the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees? Oh, wait: It still does. These ancient rivals will be featured on the MLB Network Friday night (7:05 p.m. ET) as they get the “second half” of the 2016 campaign underway with a three-game set at Yankee Stadium.


These are two of the most public teams in the majors, if not the Top 2. All those fans betting all that money on their beloved franchises – it's a one-way trip to Chalk City. At least the Red Sox (49-38, +0.19 units) are playing competitive baseball this year. The Yankees (44-44, –4.47 units) have spent most of the season below .500, and they can't seem to decide if they're buyers or sellers for the playoff drive. But New York is a –140 favorite on Friday's MLB odds board as we go to press. Interesting.

 

AAA-Rod
In theory, the pitching matchup shouldn't be that advantageous for the Yankees. They're well-served with Michael Pineda (3.79 FIP) on the mound, while the Red Sox respond with the guy that's supposed to be their future ace, Eduardo Rodriguez. Something's not right with Rodriguez, though. His FIP has ballooned from 3.92 as a rookie to 6.96 FIP as a sophomore. The heck?!

Apparently, Rodriguez has been tipping his pitches. He missed the first two months of the season with a knee injury, and his delivery has been a mess ever since. Boston went just 2-4 in Rodriguez' six starts for a loss of 2.39 units. So they sent him to AAA-Pawtucket at the end of June to make some adjustments; this will be his first game back.

 

Fantasy Corner
Maybe those adjustments won't matter. None of Rodriguez' six starts were against the Yankees, who tattooed him last year for a .845 OPS. Need some help for your fantasy lineup? Go out and get Yankees SS Didi Gregorius (.796 OPS) already. He went 4-for-11 against Rodriguez last year, and that was when he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. Gregorius is still available in 66.3 percent of ESPN leagues at press time.

Meanwhile, current Boston bats have a combined .692 OPS versus Pineda. New York has won five of his last seven starts, although Pineda is still 3.28 units in the red on a team record of 8-9. FiveThirtyEight projects the Yankees to win Friday's game 54 percent of the time, or –117 on our SBR Betting Odds Converter, so if you want to put the Yankees in your MLB picks, you're betting that the hot side stays hot, and the cold side stays cold. With the total bumped all the way up to 9.5 runs, we'll have to settle for a small wager on New York, but keep it very small, and may the sphere be with you.

 

Free MLB Pick: Yankees –107
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Record: 16-15 ML, 5-3-1 Totals (+3.54 units)

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