Red Sox Favored Over Braves? Profit Off Sportsbooks Miscalculations

Darin Zank

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 12:45 PM GMT

Boston carries a seven-game losing streak into Tuesday afternoon's interleague bout with Atlanta. And yet the Sox are favored in the MLB odds. Are we missing something?

Braves-Sox Tuesday Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best price in MLB odds we could find on Boston and Wade Miley was the -153 offered at BetOnline, while GT Bets was giving Atlanta and Julio Teheran +144. How can a team that's lost seven in a row be favored by that much?

 

The Situation
Atlanta (31-33) took the opener of this four-game, two-city series Monday night 4-2. So the Braves have won four of their last seven games, while Boston (27-38), as mentioned above, has lost seven in a row.

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Tuesday's Starters
Miley (5-6, 5.07) is five-for-12 on quality starts this season. Last Thursday he got clipped for five runs in four innings against Baltimore, giving up three gopher balls, the second time in his last three starts he's allowed five runs. Boston is 6-6 in Miley's starts this season, 4-2 over his last six starts, with the totals, somehow, leaning toward the UNDERS by an 8-4 margin.

Last year Miley, pitching for Arizona, started twice against Atlanta, allowing just two ER through 13 2/3 innings; his Diamondbacks won both those games.

Teheran (4-2, 4.78) is five-for-13 on quality starts. Last Thursday he held San Diego to three ER through seven innings, while over his last three starts he's allowed 10 ER through 20 1/3 innings; mediocre at best. Atlanta is 8-5 in Teheran's starts, with the totals skewing OVER by an 11-2 margin.

This will be Teheran's first-ever start against Boston.

 

Tuesday's Batting Splits
Atlanta ranks 28th in the Majors with a .299 team OBP against left-handed pitching, while Boston ranks 11th against righties with a .321 team OBP.

 

Free MLB Picks
We'll call the pitching match-up about a wash, and the Sox own an edge with the sticks. But we just can't in good conscience recommend betting a team that's lost seven games in a row. We don't always subscribe to the “steak” betting theory, but it seems applicable in this spot. Also, the total seems affected by the Fenway factor.

MLB Picks: Atlanta +144 at GT Bets and UNDER 8.5 runs (-105) at Heritage