For Wednesday in major league baseball we have a great offensive matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays battling for the AL East visiting the Boston Red Sox battling for pride. For one of your MLB picks I suggest backing over the total in this matchup as this looks to be a high-scoring affair. Both pitchers come in to this contest having to face two of the best hitting teams in baseball, and I don't anticipate them to come out unscathed.
MLB odds makers came out with a really high total for this game at 10, but it makes sense. Across the board there is regular juice on this line but you can still get some pretty good value at Pinnacle Sports backing over the total at -105.
Toronto Blue Jays
Drew Hutchinson takes the mound for the Blue Jays with a 5.07 ERA, 1.42 whip, 124 strikeouts, and a 13-3 record. ESPN just came out with an article about how he has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year because of the tremendous amount of run support he has gotten from his team. In short, when he pitches Toronto tends to have high-scoring games. In his last five games he has allowed 13 earned runs total, and he is coming off a rough outing in which he allowed six earned runs in nine hits in just five innings against Baltimore. He hasn't pitched a ton on the road but when he has there have been a lot of runs with a surprising ERA of 9.00 and batters hitting .372 against him in 11 games.
Toronto ranks first in runs scored per game at 5.48, first in OPS at .788, and sixth in batting average hitting .267 as a team. Although they are much better home hitting team than they are on the road they simply have a dangerous lineup up and down and should have some quality at-bats today. With Josh Donaldson leading the way in his MVP campaign I am anticipating Toronto to light up the scoreboard in Boston today.
Boston Red Sox
Joe Kelly gets the start for Boston and comes in with a 4.84 ERA, 1.42 whip, 101 strikeouts, and at 9-6 record. He has actually pitched pretty well in his last five games allowing only six earned runs total in those starts. In his last 10 starts he has been decent, but when he has faced a quality hitting team he has struggled. His home ERA is actually a bit higher than his ERA on the road at 4.96 and batters hitting .288 against him, expect him to struggle today.
Boston ranks third in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.64, sixth in OPS at .744, and fifth in batting average hitting .267 as a team. You would think with those solid offensive statistics that they would be in the hunt for playoff spot but it hasn't worked out that way this season. At home they are an extremely tough team at the plate and all their major offensive statistics jump in Boston. Their batting average significantly goes up going from .237 on the road to .295 at home, second in the majors just behind Colorado. There OPS is also over .800 in Fenway.
Free MLB Picks
There is a reason why odds makers have set the total for this game so high and I'm going to go ahead and back the over for one of my MLB picks and not be swayed by the large number. This should be a really fun game to watch and I expect both teams to put a big numbers today, back the over.